FALABELLA:BCSFalabella S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
CLP 6,065.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Falabella’s share price is trading comfortably above its short‑term moving averages while still sitting below the longer‑term average, a setup reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover and a momentum indicator that remains in the positive zone. Rising volume adds confidence to the upward bias, although the price is approaching a key resistance level observed in recent trading ranges.
Fundamentally, the stock offers a modest dividend yield with a payout ratio that suggests sustainability, and it delivers solid return on equity alongside healthy operating cash flow. However, a high leverage profile and a discounted cash‑flow model that places intrinsic value well below the current market price raise concerns about overvaluation, even as analyst targets imply modest upside potential. The blend of steady earnings growth, cyclical exposure, and mixed valuation signals points to a cautious but opportunistic stance.
Fundamentally, the stock offers a modest dividend yield with a payout ratio that suggests sustainability, and it delivers solid return on equity alongside healthy operating cash flow. However, a high leverage profile and a discounted cash‑flow model that places intrinsic value well below the current market price raise concerns about overvaluation, even as analyst targets imply modest upside potential. The blend of steady earnings growth, cyclical exposure, and mixed valuation signals points to a cautious but opportunistic stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical momentum with MACD and rising volume
- Price nearing short‑term resistance
- Upcoming dividend ex‑date supporting demand
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent revenue growth and strong operating cash flow
- Analyst target prices indicating upside potential
- Sustainable dividend enhancing total return
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio increasing financial risk
- Exposure to consumer cyclicality across multiple Latin American markets
- Stable earnings and dividend profile supporting income focus
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.90%
Profit Margin10.25%
P/E Ratio11.0
ROE21.55%
ROA3.73%
Debt/Equity55.08
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowCLP1432.0B
Free Cash FlowCLP849.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI60.6
SupportCLP 5,419.10
ResistanceCLP 6,149.00
MA 20CLP 5,815.91
MA 50CLP 5,745.95
MA 200CLP 5,975.98
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair ValueCLP 4,468.00
Target PriceCLP 6,741.82
Upside/Downside11.16%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.62%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.60
Volatility31.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.