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FALABELLA:BCSFalabella S.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

CLP 6,065.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Falabella’s share price is trading comfortably above its short‑term moving averages while still sitting below the longer‑term average, a setup reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover and a momentum indicator that remains in the positive zone. Rising volume adds confidence to the upward bias, although the price is approaching a key resistance level observed in recent trading ranges.
Fundamentally, the stock offers a modest dividend yield with a payout ratio that suggests sustainability, and it delivers solid return on equity alongside healthy operating cash flow. However, a high leverage profile and a discounted cash‑flow model that places intrinsic value well below the current market price raise concerns about overvaluation, even as analyst targets imply modest upside potential. The blend of steady earnings growth, cyclical exposure, and mixed valuation signals points to a cautious but opportunistic stance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical momentum with MACD and rising volume
  • Price nearing short‑term resistance
  • Upcoming dividend ex‑date supporting demand

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent revenue growth and strong operating cash flow
  • Analyst target prices indicating upside potential
  • Sustainable dividend enhancing total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio increasing financial risk
  • Exposure to consumer cyclicality across multiple Latin American markets
  • Stable earnings and dividend profile supporting income focus

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.90%
Profit Margin10.25%
P/E Ratio11.0
ROE21.55%
ROA3.73%
Debt/Equity55.08
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowCLP1432.0B
Free Cash FlowCLP849.8B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI60.6
SupportCLP 5,419.10
ResistanceCLP 6,149.00
MA 20CLP 5,815.91
MA 50CLP 5,745.95
MA 200CLP 5,975.98
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair ValueCLP 4,468.00
Target PriceCLP 6,741.82
Upside/Downside11.16%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.62%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.60
Volatility31.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.