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F:NYSEFord Motor Company Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

$17.46

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ford’s stock is trading well above its 30‑day simple moving average and near its 52‑week high, while the 14‑day RSI sits in the high‑80s, indicating extreme overbought conditions. MACD remains bullish, but the combination of a high beta (≈1.3) and a 30‑day volatility above 60% signals a heightened susceptibility to market swings.
Fundamentally, the company’s forward price‑to‑earnings of roughly 9.5 and a dividend yield of 3.6% provide modest value appeal, yet a negative profit margin, negative free cash flow and a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 400% raise concerns about earnings sustainability. The discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value near $23, implying the current price is priced at a discount to that estimate, while analyst consensus remains neutral with a “hold” recommendation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in overbought territory suggests limited upside in the near term
  • Bullish MACD provides a short‑term supportive bias
  • Recent dividend declaration and guidance raise underpin price momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair‑value gap indicates potential upside but is offset by high leverage
  • Modest revenue growth and low profit margins limit earnings expansion
  • Attractive dividend yield offers income while the stock remains near resistance

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Negative profit margin and free cash flow raise sustainability concerns
  • Debt‑to‑equity ratio above 400% constrains financial flexibility
  • Intense competitive pressure in EV and regulatory headwinds could erode margins

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.40%
Profit Margin-3.22%
P/E Ratio9.5
ROE-14.81%
ROA0.34%
Debt/Equity425.54
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash Flow$18.9B
Free Cash Flow$-2247500032

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI80.0
Support$11.46
Resistance$17.78
MA 20$13.52
MA 50$12.66
MA 200$12.77
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index94.04

Valuation

Fair Value$23.02
Target Price$13.75
Upside/Downside-21.23%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.60%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.30
Volatility61.74%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.