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EXX:JSEExxaro Resources Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time

ZAC 20,598.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Exxaro is trading at 20,598 ZAc, just above the identified support level of 20,492 and below its 20‑day (21,337) and 50‑day (21,512) simple moving averages, indicating short‑term pressure. The RSI of 37.7 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, yet the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
On the fundamentals side, the company appears markedly cheap – a PE of 6.48 versus an industry average of 21.5 and a price‑to‑book of 0.86. It delivers a generous 9.66% dividend yield with a payout ratio under 60%, supported by solid cash reserves (23.7 bn ZAc) despite a high debt‑to‑equity of 18.7. However, the coal‑centric sector faces elevated regulatory and transition risks, reflected in the extreme‑greed market sentiment (fear/greed index 91.75) and a 30‑day volatility of 25%. These dynamics suggest a balanced, value‑oriented position with upside potential if the stock can rebound from its near‑term support.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price hovering just above key support
  • bearish MACD and neutral trend direction
  • high dividend yield provides cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • valuation multiples far below industry peers
  • strong cash position offsets leverage concerns
  • target median price of ~26,000 suggests upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • diversification into renewable energy assets
  • sustainable dividend policy
  • ongoing sector transition and regulatory headwinds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.50%
Profit Margin18.11%
P/E Ratio6.5
ROE14.11%
ROA4.63%
Debt/Equity18.72
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowZAC8.4B
Free Cash FlowZAC851.1M
Industry P/E21.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI37.7
SupportZAC 20,492.00
ResistanceZAC 22,795.00
MA 20ZAC 21,337.35
MA 50ZAC 21,512.94
MA 200ZAC 18,992.01
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.75

Valuation

Fair ValueZAC 9,150.62
Target PriceZAC 25,640.00
Upside/Downside24.48%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield9.66%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.06
Volatility25.14%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.