EXPO:NASDAQExponent, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-07 - not real-time
$61.18
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) is trading at $61.18, just below the identified resistance of $61.60 and well under the 200‑day SMA of $67.56, signaling a bearish price context. Technical momentum is mixed: the MACD histogram is positive (+0.57) indicating short‑term bullish pressure, yet the 30‑day volatility is elevated at 31% and the beta of ~0.6 suggests modest market sensitivity. On the fundamentals side, the company posts solid profitability with a 27% operating margin, 19.8% net margin, and a 27.9% ROE, while maintaining a healthy cash position ($118M) and a modest debt‑to‑equity of 24%. The dividend yield of 2% is backed by a payout ratio of 56%, supporting its sustainability.
Valuation metrics raise caution: the trailing P/E of 28.6 is below the industry average of 32.2, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $31.97 is less than half the current market price, indicating the stock is likely overvalued. With limited upside potential and a bearish trend, the short‑term bias leans toward a defensive stance, while the strong cash flow and dividend make the stock a modest hold for income‑focused investors over medium to long horizons.
Valuation metrics raise caution: the trailing P/E of 28.6 is below the industry average of 32.2, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $31.97 is less than half the current market price, indicating the stock is likely overvalued. With limited upside potential and a bearish trend, the short‑term bias leans toward a defensive stance, while the strong cash flow and dividend make the stock a modest hold for income‑focused investors over medium to long horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price near resistance and below 200‑day SMA
- high short‑term volatility
- technical MACD divergence with bearish trend
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- sustainable 2% dividend yield
- strong operating and net margins
- valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- consistent cash generation and low debt load
- high ROE indicating efficient capital use
- sector cyclicality and overvaluation limiting upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.50%
Profit Margin19.76%
P/E Ratio28.6
ROE27.94%
ROA10.06%
Debt/Equity23.95
P/B Ratio8.8
Op. Cash Flow$123.5M
Free Cash Flow$73.8M
Industry P/E32.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI59.1
Support$54.07
Resistance$61.60
MA 20$58.19
MA 50$59.64
MA 200$67.56
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.63
Valuation
Fair Value$31.97
Target Price$81.67
Upside/Downside33.49%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.00%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.60
Volatility31.16%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.