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EXPN:LSEExperian PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time

£2,542.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Experian plc is trading at £2,542, just below its 20‑day SMA of £2,574 and facing bearish MACD momentum, while the RSI sits at a neutral 45, suggesting limited upside in the near term. The stock’s price is above the DCF‑derived fair value of £1,664, indicating a potential overvaluation on a cash‑flow basis, yet its forward PE of 14.5 and current PE of 20.5 are well below the industry average of 31.4, pointing to relative cheapness. A strong dividend yield of 2.03% with a payout ratio under 40% and robust free cash flow support dividend sustainability. Fundamentals remain solid – revenue growth of 12.3%, ROE of 28%, and operating margins above 25% – and analysts collectively rate the stock a "strong buy" with a median target near £4,014. Material news highlights that the AI boom could reinforce Experian’s market position, even as shares have slipped to decade‑low levels, adding a catalyst for a rebound. Volatility is elevated at 32% over 30 days, but beta is low, reflecting limited market‑wide sensitivity. With support around £2,203 and resistance near £2,703, the technical picture is mixed, but the company’s global footprint and data‑driven services mitigate sector and geographic risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below short‑term SMA
  • High short‑term volatility and proximity to support level
  • Attractive dividend yield providing downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and high ROE
  • Valuation discounts to industry PE multiples
  • Analyst consensus of strong‑buy and favorable earnings outlook

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • AI‑driven data analytics positioning as a growth catalyst
  • Sustainable dividend policy with solid free cash flow
  • Diversified global exposure reducing concentration risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.30%
Profit Margin17.79%
P/E Ratio20.5
ROE28.26%
ROA9.70%
Debt/Equity100.32
P/B Ratio5.4
Op. Cash Flow£2.2B
Free Cash Flow£911.2M
Industry P/E31.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.3
Support£2,203.00
Resistance£2,703.00
MA 20£2,574.25
MA 50£2,645.32
MA 200£3,059.94
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value£1,663.62
Target Price£3,912.19
Upside/Downside53.90%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.03%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.22
Volatility32.39%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.