EXE:NASDAQExpand Energy Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-04-01 - not real-time
$106.03
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Expand Energy trades around $106, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $163, implying a potential upside of over 25% and positioning the stock as undervalued. The forward P/E of 11.3 is markedly lower than the industry average of 22.7, while the dividend yield of 2.9% coupled with a modest 42% payout ratio suggests a sustainable income stream. Revenue growth of 38% and operating margins above 27% underscore robust operational performance, and the recent strategic move toward fully electric fracking could further enhance cost efficiency.
Technical signals show a bullish trend direction with the 20‑day SMA (108.37) still above the current price, but the MACD histogram is slightly negative and RSI sits near 46, indicating limited short‑term momentum. Support around $103.6 remains intact, volume is increasing, and the low beta of 0.47 points to limited market‑wide volatility, supporting a cautious yet optimistic outlook.
Technical signals show a bullish trend direction with the 20‑day SMA (108.37) still above the current price, but the MACD histogram is slightly negative and RSI sits near 46, indicating limited short‑term momentum. Support around $103.6 remains intact, volume is increasing, and the low beta of 0.47 points to limited market‑wide volatility, supporting a cautious yet optimistic outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near key support level
- Neutral technical momentum
- Increasing volume indicating potential accumulation
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation upside to DCF fair value
- Strong revenue and margin growth
- Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Strategic shift to electric fracking enhancing long‑term competitiveness
- Low beta and stable cash flow generation
- Consistent dividend and solid balance sheet
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth38.30%
Profit Margin15.63%
P/E Ratio14.0
ROE10.07%
ROA5.86%
Debt/Equity27.50
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$4.6B
Free Cash Flow$1.2B
Industry P/E22.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI45.6
Support$103.64
Resistance$114.81
MA 20$108.37
MA 50$107.46
MA 200$106.68
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.61
Valuation
Fair Value$162.82
Target Price$132.89
Upside/Downside25.33%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.91%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.47
Volatility35.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.