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EXE:NASDAQExpand Energy Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-01 - not real-time

$106.03

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Expand Energy trades around $106, well below its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $163, implying a potential upside of over 25% and positioning the stock as undervalued. The forward P/E of 11.3 is markedly lower than the industry average of 22.7, while the dividend yield of 2.9% coupled with a modest 42% payout ratio suggests a sustainable income stream. Revenue growth of 38% and operating margins above 27% underscore robust operational performance, and the recent strategic move toward fully electric fracking could further enhance cost efficiency.
Technical signals show a bullish trend direction with the 20‑day SMA (108.37) still above the current price, but the MACD histogram is slightly negative and RSI sits near 46, indicating limited short‑term momentum. Support around $103.6 remains intact, volume is increasing, and the low beta of 0.47 points to limited market‑wide volatility, supporting a cautious yet optimistic outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near key support level
  • Neutral technical momentum
  • Increasing volume indicating potential accumulation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation upside to DCF fair value
  • Strong revenue and margin growth
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic shift to electric fracking enhancing long‑term competitiveness
  • Low beta and stable cash flow generation
  • Consistent dividend and solid balance sheet

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth38.30%
Profit Margin15.63%
P/E Ratio14.0
ROE10.07%
ROA5.86%
Debt/Equity27.50
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$4.6B
Free Cash Flow$1.2B
Industry P/E22.7

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI45.6
Support$103.64
Resistance$114.81
MA 20$108.37
MA 50$107.46
MA 200$106.68
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.61

Valuation

Fair Value$162.82
Target Price$132.89
Upside/Downside25.33%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.91%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.47
Volatility35.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.