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EWCZ:NASDAQEuropean Wax Center, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-04-01 - not real-time

$5.79

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

European Wax Center’s stock is trading at $5.79, tightly sandwiched between a support level of $5.72 and a resistance ceiling of $5.82, while the 20‑day SMA (5.77) sits above both the 50‑day (5.24) and 200‑day (4.49) averages, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. However, the RSI of 76 signals that the shares are heavily overbought, and the MACD histogram has turned negative with a bearish signal line, suggesting momentum may be waning. Volume is on a decreasing trend, and the 30‑day volatility of just under 4% combined with a beta above 1.3 points to heightened price swings relative to the market. On the fundamentals side, the company enjoys a robust gross margin of 74% and a respectable ROE of 12%, but revenue has contracted 9.3% year‑over‑year and the balance sheet is strained by a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding 360%, leaving the capital structure vulnerable. Recent news shows the Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations with EPS of $0.10, yet a shareholder‑led investigation into a potential buyout adds a layer of uncertainty that could affect investor sentiment.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in overbought territory
  • Bearish MACD divergence
  • Price hovering at resistance with falling volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value suggests upside
  • High gross margins offsetting revenue decline
  • Elevated debt levels requiring monitoring

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong franchise model in a defensive consumer segment
  • Forward EPS growth and low forward P/E
  • Potential upside from balance‑sheet deleveraging and market expansion

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-9.30%
Profit Margin4.20%
P/E Ratio28.9
ROE12.08%
ROA4.04%
Debt/Equity364.54
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash Flow$53.0M
Free Cash Flow$47.1M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI76.1
Support$5.72
Resistance$5.82
MA 20$5.77
MA 50$5.24
MA 200$4.49
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.63

Valuation

Fair Value$6.08
Target Price$7.64
Upside/Downside31.95%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.32
Volatility3.96%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.