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EVK:XETREvonik Industries AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

€14.36

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Evonik trades at €14.36, roughly 5% below its DCF‑derived fair value of €15.39, suggesting a modest undervaluation. However, the company’s 6.96% dividend yield is backed by a payout ratio of over 200%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. Revenue has contracted by 5.4% YoY and margins remain thin (gross margin ~24.6%, operating margin ~11.8%), while earnings are expected to improve sharply, reflected in a forward EPS of €1.34 and a forward P/E of 10.7. Technical indicators show a neutral price trend, a bearish MACD histogram, and a 20‑day SMA just above the current price, with support at €13.38 and resistance near €15.85. Volatility is elevated at 37% over the past month, but beta is low, indicating limited market‑wide systematic risk. The stock’s liquidity is improving, as volume trends upward, yet the high dividend payout and recent earnings weakness inject short‑term uncertainty.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and neutral trend suggest limited upside
  • High dividend payout ratio threatens near‑term cash flow
  • Support level provides a cushion against further downside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward P/E of 10.7 indicates attractive earnings valuation
  • DCF suggests price upside of ~5%
  • Improving earnings outlook and stable operating cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation but modest revenue growth
  • Sector exposure to chemicals brings regulatory and cyclical risk
  • Potential dividend adjustments could affect total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-5.40%
Profit Margin1.88%
P/E Ratio25.2
ROE3.21%
ROA3.00%
Debt/Equity47.36
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow€1.4B
Free Cash Flow€767.3M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.2
Support€13.38
Resistance€15.85
MA 20€14.60
MA 50€14.07
MA 200€15.36
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value€15.39
Target Price€15.14
Upside/Downside5.45%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.96%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.11
Volatility37.30%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.