We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

EQR:NYSEEquity Residential Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time

$65.74

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Equity Residential (EQR) trades at $65.74, delivering a 4.27% dividend yield but a payout ratio above 100% (111%), indicating limited dividend cushion. The stock sits modestly above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs (64.85, 62.06, 62.46) and shows a neutral trend, while the MACD histogram is slightly negative, suggesting short‑term caution. Nevertheless, the model‑based upside of roughly 7.5% (target median $70) and the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (FGI 89.3) provide a modest valuation edge. Key fundamentals include a solid gross margin of 62.8%, operating margin of 27.4%, and free cash flow of $1.42 B, offset by a high debt‑to‑equity of 78% and a beta under 0.4, reflecting low volatility relative to the market.
Material news highlights exploratory merger talks with AvalonBay Communities, which could reshape the residential REIT landscape and potentially unlock scale efficiencies. The Q1 2026 earnings call reported same‑store revenue growth of 2.2% and a stable expense trajectory, reinforcing the company's operational resilience amid a competitive rental market.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near short‑term support at $61.33 with modest upside
  • Negative MACD histogram indicating potential pull‑back
  • High dividend payout ratio limiting cash flexibility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Potential AvalonBay merger creating scale and rent‑growth synergies
  • Projected upside to $70 target price (+7.5%)
  • Stable same‑store revenue growth and strong free cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified presence in high‑growth metros supporting demand
  • Elevated debt‑to‑equity (78%) and >100% dividend payout pose sustainability risk
  • Low beta and defensive REIT sector exposure offer portfolio stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO15.641357542467544

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI59.5
Support$61.33
Resistance$66.95
MA 20$64.85
MA 50$62.06
MA 200$62.46
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.3

Risk Assessment

Beta0.36
Volatility22.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.