EQR:NYSEEquity Residential Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time
$65.74
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Equity Residential (EQR) trades at $65.74, delivering a 4.27% dividend yield but a payout ratio above 100% (111%), indicating limited dividend cushion. The stock sits modestly above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs (64.85, 62.06, 62.46) and shows a neutral trend, while the MACD histogram is slightly negative, suggesting short‑term caution. Nevertheless, the model‑based upside of roughly 7.5% (target median $70) and the “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (FGI 89.3) provide a modest valuation edge. Key fundamentals include a solid gross margin of 62.8%, operating margin of 27.4%, and free cash flow of $1.42 B, offset by a high debt‑to‑equity of 78% and a beta under 0.4, reflecting low volatility relative to the market.
Material news highlights exploratory merger talks with AvalonBay Communities, which could reshape the residential REIT landscape and potentially unlock scale efficiencies. The Q1 2026 earnings call reported same‑store revenue growth of 2.2% and a stable expense trajectory, reinforcing the company's operational resilience amid a competitive rental market.
Material news highlights exploratory merger talks with AvalonBay Communities, which could reshape the residential REIT landscape and potentially unlock scale efficiencies. The Q1 2026 earnings call reported same‑store revenue growth of 2.2% and a stable expense trajectory, reinforcing the company's operational resilience amid a competitive rental market.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price near short‑term support at $61.33 with modest upside
- Negative MACD histogram indicating potential pull‑back
- High dividend payout ratio limiting cash flexibility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Potential AvalonBay merger creating scale and rent‑growth synergies
- Projected upside to $70 target price (+7.5%)
- Stable same‑store revenue growth and strong free cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Diversified presence in high‑growth metros supporting demand
- Elevated debt‑to‑equity (78%) and >100% dividend payout pose sustainability risk
- Low beta and defensive REIT sector exposure offer portfolio stability
Key Metrics & Analysis
REIT Metrics
P/FFO15.641357542467544
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI59.5
Support$61.33
Resistance$66.95
MA 20$64.85
MA 50$62.06
MA 200$62.46
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.3
Risk Assessment
Beta0.36
Volatility22.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.