EPR:NYSEEPR Properties Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-28 - not real-time
$59.70
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
EPR Properties trades at $59.70, just below its technical resistance of $61.02 and comfortably above the support level of $55.64, with a bullish trend confirmed by a 20‑day SMA of $58.11 and a MACD histogram that remains positive. The stock’s momentum indicators—RSI at 59.7 and a bullish MACD crossover—suggest continued upside potential, reinforced by an increasing volume trend. Fundamentally, the REIT offers a compelling 6.23% dividend yield, yet the payout ratio exceeds 100% (109.7%), raising questions about cash sustainability given its high leverage (Debt‑to‑Equity 135%).
The valuation appears mixed: a forward P/E of 19.8 is well below the industry average of 33.3, indicating relative cheapness, but a discounted cash‑flow fair value of $30.18 is roughly half the market price, limiting upside to about 2.3%. Recent positive sentiment—Citizens’ upgrade and a strategic shift toward pure‑play experiential assets—adds confidence, while the extreme‑greed market environment (FGI 88.55) and low beta (0.19) suggest limited downside volatility in the near term.
The valuation appears mixed: a forward P/E of 19.8 is well below the industry average of 33.3, indicating relative cheapness, but a discounted cash‑flow fair value of $30.18 is roughly half the market price, limiting upside to about 2.3%. Recent positive sentiment—Citizens’ upgrade and a strategic shift toward pure‑play experiential assets—adds confidence, while the extreme‑greed market environment (FGI 88.55) and low beta (0.19) suggest limited downside volatility in the near term.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (RSI 59.7, MACD bullish) and support at $55.64
- High dividend yield of 6.23% providing immediate income
- Payout ratio >100% and elevated debt raise cash‑flow concerns
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Citizens upgrade and ongoing portfolio transformation toward experiential assets
- Relative valuation advantage (P/E 18.4 vs industry 33.3, price near target median $60.5)
- Strong operating margins (51% operating margin) supporting dividend sustainability
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Elevated leverage (Debt‑to‑Equity 135%) and payout >100% may limit growth
- DCF fair value suggests current price is significantly above intrinsic value
- Sector volatility (20% 30‑day) and potential regulatory changes to REIT taxation
Key Metrics & Analysis
REIT Metrics
P/FFO10.50119984087955
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI59.7
Support$55.64
Resistance$61.02
MA 20$58.11
MA 50$57.53
MA 200$54.74
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.55
Risk Assessment
Beta0.19
Volatility20.20%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.