ENSG:NASDAQThe Ensign Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-31 - not real-time
$200.06
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The Ensign Group (ENSG) is trading at $200.06, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $205.72 but still above the 50‑day SMA of $199.50, signaling a short‑term bullish bias while the MACD remains bearish and RSI sits at 42, suggesting limited upside momentum.
Volume is increasing and the stock holds above the $197.52 support level with resistance near $214.35, while a 30‑day volatility of 19% and a low beta of 0.44 point to modest price swings. Fundamentals show strong top‑line growth (20% YoY revenue increase) and improving earnings (forward EPS $8.24 vs trailing $5.83) but valuation metrics are stretched – a P/E of 34.3 versus the industry average of 25.5 and a DCF fair value of $118.48 imply the market is pricing in significant premium. The dividend is modest at 0.13% with a very low payout ratio (4.3%), indicating sustainability, yet the high debt‑to‑equity ratio (~99) and a modest free cash flow of $281 M suggest caution on leverage.
Volume is increasing and the stock holds above the $197.52 support level with resistance near $214.35, while a 30‑day volatility of 19% and a low beta of 0.44 point to modest price swings. Fundamentals show strong top‑line growth (20% YoY revenue increase) and improving earnings (forward EPS $8.24 vs trailing $5.83) but valuation metrics are stretched – a P/E of 34.3 versus the industry average of 25.5 and a DCF fair value of $118.48 imply the market is pricing in significant premium. The dividend is modest at 0.13% with a very low payout ratio (4.3%), indicating sustainability, yet the high debt‑to‑equity ratio (~99) and a modest free cash flow of $281 M suggest caution on leverage.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above 50‑day SMA and near support
- Bearish MACD and neutral RSI limiting upside
- Increasing volume supporting current price level
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue and EPS growth expectations
- Overvalued relative to peers and DCF
- Sustainable dividend with low payout
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Demographic tailwinds for senior‑care services
- High leverage requiring careful balance‑sheet monitoring
- DCF suggests price may need correction over time
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth20.20%
Profit Margin6.80%
P/E Ratio34.3
ROE16.89%
ROA5.25%
Debt/Equity98.70
P/B Ratio5.2
Op. Cash Flow$564.3M
Free Cash Flow$281.2M
Industry P/E25.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI42.2
Support$197.52
Resistance$214.35
MA 20$205.72
MA 50$199.50
MA 200$176.60
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index74.68
Valuation
Fair Value$118.48
Target Price$220.40
Upside/Downside10.17%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.13%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.44
Volatility19.31%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.