ENI:MILEni S.p.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time
€21.64
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Eni trades at €21.64, comfortably above its immediate support of €21.09 but well below the 20‑day SMA of €22.82 and the 50‑day SMA of €23.13, indicating short‑term bearish pressure. Technical signals reinforce this view: the MACD is bearish, the RSI sits at 37.7 (near oversold territory), and volume is increasing, suggesting accumulation may be building at lower levels.
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued: the DCF fair value of €31.51 implies a 17% upside, and analyst consensus targets (~€25.5) also point to upside. However, earnings quality is mixed – revenue fell 12.6%, margins are thin (gross 20.8%, operating 4.3%), free cash flow is negative, and the dividend payout exceeds 100% of earnings, raising sustainability concerns. The company carries €36.6 bn of debt (Debt/Equity ≈ 67%) and a beta of –0.28, meaning it is less correlated with market moves but still subject to high sector volatility (≈28% 30‑day).
Fundamentally, the stock appears undervalued: the DCF fair value of €31.51 implies a 17% upside, and analyst consensus targets (~€25.5) also point to upside. However, earnings quality is mixed – revenue fell 12.6%, margins are thin (gross 20.8%, operating 4.3%), free cash flow is negative, and the dividend payout exceeds 100% of earnings, raising sustainability concerns. The company carries €36.6 bn of debt (Debt/Equity ≈ 67%) and a beta of –0.28, meaning it is less correlated with market moves but still subject to high sector volatility (≈28% 30‑day).
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and RSI near oversold suggest limited upside in the near term
- Price is close to the identified support level of €21.09
- Dividend payout exceeds earnings, questioning near‑term cash flow
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value indicates ~17% upside and analyst targets cluster around €25.5
- Forward PE of 9.3 points to earnings acceleration
- Increasing volume may support a rally toward resistance at €24.09
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strategic shift toward renewables (Plenitude, Enilive) balances energy transition risk
- High debt level and negative free cash flow limit financial flexibility
- Regulatory and commodity price volatility remain significant for integrated oil & gas
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-12.60%
Profit Margin2.97%
P/E Ratio21.6
ROE5.91%
ROA2.25%
Debt/Equity67.36
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow€12.4B
Free Cash Flow€-939374976
Industry P/E20.1
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI37.7
Support€21.09
Resistance€24.09
MA 20€22.82
MA 50€23.13
MA 200€18.78
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair Value€31.51
Target Price€25.40
Upside/Downside17.38%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.94%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.28
Volatility27.89%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.