EMSN:SIXEMS-CHEMIE HOLDING AG Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time
CHF 659.50
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
EMS‑CHEMIE is trading at CHF 659.5, just above the calculated support of CHF 651.5 and slightly below the 20‑day SMA of CHF 667.05. The price sits between the 50‑day SMA (CHF 644.44) and the 200‑day SMA (CHF 601.02), suggesting a lingering bullish bias, yet the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, while volume is on a downtrend and the RSI hovers around the neutral 50 mark.
Fundamentally, the stock appears stretched: the DCF‑derived fair value is only about CHF 250 versus the current price, and valuation multiples are high (P/E ≈ 33, P/B ≈ 8.3). Revenue is contracting at –5.4% YoY, though margins remain solid, ROE stands at ~25%, and a 2.12% dividend yield with a 70% payout is backed by strong cash flow and minimal debt. The dividend provides a modest cushion, but the valuation gap signals limited upside at present.
Fundamentally, the stock appears stretched: the DCF‑derived fair value is only about CHF 250 versus the current price, and valuation multiples are high (P/E ≈ 33, P/B ≈ 8.3). Revenue is contracting at –5.4% YoY, though margins remain solid, ROE stands at ~25%, and a 2.12% dividend yield with a 70% payout is backed by strong cash flow and minimal debt. The dividend provides a modest cushion, but the valuation gap signals limited upside at present.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near support level with decreasing volume
- Bearish MACD signal despite overall bullish trend
- Neutral RSI indicating no strong momentum
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High valuation multiples relative to DCF fair value
- Negative revenue growth offset by strong profitability
- Attractive dividend yield providing income support
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Robust cash generation and low debt level
- Sustainable dividend backed by solid free cash flow
- Need for price correction to align with intrinsic value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-5.40%
Profit Margin23.69%
P/E Ratio33.1
ROE25.29%
ROA15.94%
Debt/Equity1.75
P/B Ratio8.3
Op. Cash FlowCHF534.3M
Free Cash FlowCHF400.9M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.1
SupportCHF 651.50
ResistanceCHF 683.00
MA 20CHF 667.05
MA 50CHF 644.44
MA 200CHF 601.02
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.25
Valuation
Fair ValueCHF 250.68
Target PriceCHF 659.50
Upside/Downside0.00%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.12%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.01
Volatility18.78%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.