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EMBJ3:BMFBOVESPAEmbraer S.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

R$73.86

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Embraer (EMBJ3) is trading at R$73.86, well below its 20‑day (R$89.09) and 50‑day (R$93.47) simple moving averages, signaling a potential bottoming pattern. The RSI of 24.99 places the stock in oversold territory, while the MACD remains in a bearish configuration, suggesting short‑term downside pressure but also a possible rebound from the identified support at R$73.41. Volume is increasing, which often precedes a corrective move, and the beta of 1.34 combined with a 30‑day volatility of 49.5% highlights heightened price swings. On the valuation side, the forward PE of 12.93 is dramatically lower than the trailing PE of 29.54 and the industry average PE of 29.10, implying earnings are expected to accelerate. Analyst consensus rates the stock as a Buy with median target price near R$98.46, indicating roughly 30% upside from current levels. The dividend yield of 1.05% and a modest payout ratio of 30% support a sustainable income stream.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI indicating near‑term price floor
  • Support level at R$73.41 aligns with current price
  • Rising volume suggesting accumulation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Forward PE of 12.93 points to earnings acceleration
  • Analyst target price implies ~30% upside
  • Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High debt‑to‑equity (73%) could constrain cash flow
  • Exposure to Brazil’s economic and political environment
  • Long‑term growth opportunities in eVTOL and defense programs

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin4.66%
P/E Ratio29.5
ROE9.56%
ROA2.96%
Debt/Equity72.80
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash FlowR$4.5B
Free Cash FlowR$889.8M
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI25.0
SupportR$73.41
ResistanceR$96.70
MA 20R$89.09
MA 50R$93.47
MA 200R$90.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueR$19.00
Target PriceR$96.58
Upside/Downside30.76%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.05%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.34
Volatility49.53%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.