EDU:NYSENew Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. Sponsored Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-28 - not real-time
$50.79
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
New Oriental is trading well below its intrinsic valuation, creating a sizable margin of safety for investors. The discounted cash flow model points to a fair value far above the current market price, while the price‑to‑earnings multiple remains modest relative to peers. Technical signals are supportive, with the short‑term moving average positioned above the longer‑term average and a bullish MACD histogram confirming upward momentum. The relative strength index sits in the upper half of its range, indicating continued buying pressure without being overbought. Dividend sustainability is reinforced by a low payout ratio and strong operating cash flow, making the 2%‑plus yield attractive for income‑focused investors.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue growth and healthy gross margins, complemented by expanding operating cash flow and a robust balance sheet with ample cash and modest debt. Return on equity and asset efficiency are respectable, supporting the view that earnings are likely to improve in the coming quarters. However, the education sector in China carries heightened regulatory scrutiny, and the firm’s heavy reliance on the Chinese market adds geographic concentration risk. Despite these headwinds, the combination of undervaluation, dividend appeal, and resilient cash generation positions New Oriental as a compelling buy across multiple horizons.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue growth and healthy gross margins, complemented by expanding operating cash flow and a robust balance sheet with ample cash and modest debt. Return on equity and asset efficiency are respectable, supporting the view that earnings are likely to improve in the coming quarters. However, the education sector in China carries heightened regulatory scrutiny, and the firm’s heavy reliance on the Chinese market adds geographic concentration risk. Despite these headwinds, the combination of undervaluation, dividend appeal, and resilient cash generation positions New Oriental as a compelling buy across multiple horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Upcoming earnings release could unlock upside
- Bullish MACD and supportive moving averages
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
- Continued revenue growth and margin expansion
- Strong cash generation and manageable debt
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term upside potential reflected in intrinsic valuation
- Sustainable dividend policy supporting total return
- Diversification into e‑commerce and online education mitigating regulatory pressure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth19.80%
Profit Margin7.82%
P/E Ratio18.8
ROE10.84%
ROA4.85%
Debt/Equity18.27
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$907.5M
Free Cash Flow$617.3M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI64.7
Support$45.57
Resistance$50.98
MA 20$48.64
MA 50$47.57
MA 200$53.81
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.91
Valuation
Fair Value$130.94
Target Price$70.61
Upside/Downside39.02%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.40%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.54
Volatility26.70%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.