EDRY:NASDAQEuroDry Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time
$23.10
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
EuroDry Ltd. (EDRY) is trading at $23.10, just above its 20‑day SMA of $23.07, with a bullish MACD crossover (0.60 above the 0.52 signal) and a neutral RSI of 53, indicating short‑term momentum is intact. Volatility remains elevated at 56% over the past 30 days and beta is sub‑1 (0.82), suggesting price swings are pronounced but less correlated with the broader market. The stock enjoys a strong technical backdrop, supported by a clear support level near $20.70 and a resistance ceiling at $28, while volume trends are increasing, reinforcing the bullish bias. Fundamentally, the company delivers 38.9% revenue growth and a forward PE of 5.47 versus an industry average of 31.4, positioning it as a deep value play.
Despite a negative trailing EPS and a thin profit margin (-0.5%), the forward EPS projection of $4.22 and free cash flow of $8.83 M signal improving earnings potential. However, the balance sheet is leveraged, with debt of $100.1 M and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 97, and the current ROE is only 0.6%, underscoring execution risk. The DCF fair value of $81.90 implies a 44% upside, but the high 30‑day volatility and a max drawdown of -21.8% highlight the need for caution. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with growth catalysts, yet investors must weigh the cyclical nature of marine shipping and the company’s leverage.
Despite a negative trailing EPS and a thin profit margin (-0.5%), the forward EPS projection of $4.22 and free cash flow of $8.83 M signal improving earnings potential. However, the balance sheet is leveraged, with debt of $100.1 M and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 97, and the current ROE is only 0.6%, underscoring execution risk. The DCF fair value of $81.90 implies a 44% upside, but the high 30‑day volatility and a max drawdown of -21.8% highlight the need for caution. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with growth catalysts, yet investors must weigh the cyclical nature of marine shipping and the company’s leverage.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above 20‑day SMA
- Support level at $20.70 providing downside cushion
- Elevated 30‑day volatility increasing short‑term risk
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant revenue growth (38.9%) and low forward PE vs industry
- DCF fair value indicating ~44% upside
- Increasing volume confirming market interest
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Large valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
- Fleet capacity and global dry‑bulk demand recovery prospects
- Improving earnings outlook with positive forward EPS projection
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth38.90%
Profit Margin-0.55%
P/E Ratio5.5
ROE0.62%
ROA1.93%
Debt/Equity97.06
P/B Ratio0.7
Op. Cash Flow$17.4M
Free Cash Flow$8.8M
Industry P/E31.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI52.6
Support$20.70
Resistance$28.00
MA 20$23.07
MA 50$21.71
MA 200$16.28
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46
Valuation
Fair Value$81.90
Target Price$33.33
Upside/Downside44.30%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.82
Volatility56.00%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.