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DHL:XETRDeutsche Post AG Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-19 - not real-time

€47.07

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Deutsche Post AG is positioned at a crossroads where technical signals show mixed momentum: the price sits just under the 20‑day moving average while remaining above the 50‑day level, the RSI hovers near the midpoint and the MACD has turned bearish, all amid a decreasing volume trend. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a price‑earnings multiple that is markedly lower than the industry average, supports a robust dividend yield above four percent with a payout ratio under sixty percent, and yet the discounted cash‑flow model flags a fair value below current levels, highlighting a valuation tension.
The company’s earnings profile shows modest revenue contraction but improving EBIT, solid cash generation, and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio that warrants monitoring. Given the low beta and defensive sector positioning, the stock offers downside protection, but elevated 30‑day volatility and a recent price dip toward support suggest caution in the near term.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price near short‑term support with bearish MACD
  • decreasing volume indicating waning buying pressure
  • strong dividend yield providing interim return

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • PE multiple well below industry peers suggesting value upside
  • stable cash flow and sustainable dividend supporting earnings
  • low beta offering defensive characteristics in a volatile market

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • steady dividend policy delivering long‑term income
  • high debt level requiring continued cash‑flow discipline
  • global logistics exposure balancing growth opportunities with regulatory headwinds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.90%
Profit Margin4.25%
P/E Ratio15.2
ROE15.56%
ROA4.70%
Debt/Equity121.82
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow€9.6B
Free Cash Flow€5.2B
Industry P/E29.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.2
Support€45.06
Resistance€50.46
MA 20€47.58
MA 50€46.83
MA 200€44.21
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.41

Valuation

Fair Value€41.22
Target Price€49.31
Upside/Downside4.75%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.02%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.29
Volatility39.88%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.