DGE:LSEDiageo plc Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time
£1,585.50
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Diageo’s share price of 1,585p sits above its 20‑day (1,509p) and 50‑day (1,468p) moving averages but remains under the 200‑day average (1,700p), indicating a short‑term upside bias within a longer‑term downtrend. Technicals are mixed: the MACD is bullish (line above signal) while the RSI at 64 points to near‑overbought conditions, and volume has been tapering, suggesting limited buying pressure as the price approaches the resistance zone around 1,592p. Fundamentally, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 19.6 and a forward P/E of 13.2, offering a valuation discount to peers, while delivering a 3.98% dividend yield. However, a payout ratio of ~95% and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 177 raise concerns about cash‑flow sustainability. Recent material news – a 4.5% share‑price jump on quarterly sales growth, the launch of a $415 m automated US plant, and a strategic management overhaul under CEO Sir Dave Lewis – provide fresh momentum and a clearer path toward premium‑product focus and debt reduction.
Overall, the stock appears modestly undervalued with upside potential of roughly 23% per analyst targets, but investors should watch for short‑term price pressure near resistance and monitor the company’s ability to fund dividends and deleverage without compromising earnings growth.
Overall, the stock appears modestly undervalued with upside potential of roughly 23% per analyst targets, but investors should watch for short‑term price pressure near resistance and monitor the company’s ability to fund dividends and deleverage without compromising earnings growth.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price near technical resistance at 1,592p
- RSI indicating overbought conditions
- declining trading volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- forward P/E discount to peers
- high dividend yield with premium brand portfolio
- positive sales growth and new US production capacity
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- strong global brand equity and premiumization strategy
- ongoing deleveraging and cash‑flow generation
- stable demand for alcoholic beverages in consumer‑defensive sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.00%
Profit Margin12.19%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROE19.72%
ROA7.21%
Debt/Equity177.38
P/B Ratio4.1
Op. Cash Flow£4.1B
Free Cash Flow£958.1M
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI64.4
Support£1,428.40
Resistance£1,592.00
MA 20£1,509.64
MA 50£1,468.27
MA 200£1,700.41
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.5
Valuation
Target Price£1,952.68
Upside/Downside23.16%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.98%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.15
Volatility27.88%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.