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DELL:NYSEDell Technologies Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-22 - not real-time

$409.50

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Dell Technologies is trading well above its 20‑day SMA at $409.5, with a bullish trend direction but a bearish MACD histogram and a decreasing volume trend, suggesting short‑term momentum may be fading. The RSI sits at 64, indicating the stock is approaching overbought levels while the beta of 1.93 and a 30‑day volatility of over 115% underscore heightened price swings. The current price is substantially higher than the DCF‑derived fair value of $271, implying the market is pricing in strong growth expectations. Fundamentally, Dell delivered an 88% YoY revenue surge to $43.8 B in the latest quarter, driven by AI‑focused infrastructure sales and its first shipments of NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform. Forward earnings estimates point to a PE of 19.2, a marked improvement over the trailing PE of 32.7, and the company maintains a modest dividend yield of 0.62% with a low payout ratio, supporting dividend sustainability. However, a negative book value per share and a zero ROE reflect a weak equity base, while debt remains sizable at $31.9 B. Analyst consensus remains bullish with a “buy” rating and a median target of $500, suggesting roughly 20% upside from current levels. Overall, the stock blends strong growth catalysts with elevated valuation and volatility, calling for a nuanced stance across time horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume suggest weakening momentum
  • High short‑term volatility and beta increase price risk
  • Current price already near resistance levels

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained AI infrastructure demand and record revenue growth
  • Forward PE of 19.2 indicates reasonable valuation relative to earnings outlook
  • Low dividend payout ratio supports cash flow flexibility

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic positioning in AI‑centric server and storage markets
  • Strong cash generation and manageable debt profile
  • Analyst consensus and target price imply long‑run upside

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth87.50%
Profit Margin6.28%
P/E Ratio32.7
ROA7.00%
P/B Ratio-189.3
Op. Cash Flow$12.5B
Free Cash Flow$5.4B
Industry P/E38.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI64.4
Support$240.27
Resistance$469.47
MA 20$380.83
MA 50$282.33
MA 200$173.61
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value$271.37
Target Price$483.83
Upside/Downside18.15%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.62%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.93
Volatility115.18%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.