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CVX:NYSEChevron Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

$187.22

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Chevron (CVX) trades at $187.22, just above its 20‑day SMA of 188.4 and comfortably above the 200‑day SMA of 171.4, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish trend. The RSI sits at 48.7, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD shows a bullish signal with the line crossing above the signal line. Volume is decreasing, and the price is perched near the identified support level of 180.4, with resistance around 198.9. Fundamentals reveal a trailing P/E of 32.6 versus an industry average of 21.5, a dividend yield of 3.83% but a payout ratio exceeding 120%, raising sustainability concerns. The DCF fair value of roughly $66 implies a sizable valuation gap, translating to a 15% upside relative to current price, yet the market appears to price in strong cash generation and a bullish commodity backdrop. Recent news highlights a solid first‑quarter performance and rising oil prices, reinforcing cash flow expectations, while analyst sentiment remains broadly positive with a "buy" recommendation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD crossover
  • Price near 20‑day SMA with support intact
  • Decreasing volume suggesting caution

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong operating and free cash flow generation
  • Forward P/E of ~14.9 indicating earnings upside
  • Attractive dividend yield despite sustainability concerns

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term cash flow stability across commodity cycles
  • Valuation gap versus DCF fair value
  • Exposure to regulatory and energy transition risks

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.30%
Profit Margin5.93%
P/E Ratio32.6
ROE6.64%
ROA3.46%
Debt/Equity23.99
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$31.3B
Free Cash Flow$11.8B
Industry P/E21.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.7
Support$180.40
Resistance$198.87
MA 20$188.42
MA 50$188.61
MA 200$171.44
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$66.33
Target Price$216.04
Upside/Downside15.40%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.83%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.31
Volatility25.90%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.