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CVS:NYSECVS Health Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time

$93.26

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

CVS Health shares are trading at $93.26, comfortably above the 20‑day SMA of $89.23 and the 50‑day SMA of $80.67, indicating a bullish price momentum. The RSI of 65.4 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory, while the MACD histogram has turned slightly negative, hinting at a short‑term bearish wobble. Volatility remains elevated at 36.4% over the past 30 days, but a low beta (≈0.21) points to limited correlation with broader market swings. Fundamentally, the forward P/E of 11.15 contrasts sharply with the trailing P/E of 40.9, highlighting strong earnings growth expectations (forward EPS $8.36 vs trailing $2.28) and a 6.2% YoY revenue increase. However, a payout ratio of 116% raises concerns about dividend sustainability, and the DCF fair‑value estimate of $16.69 starkly undervalues the current price, flagging potential overvaluation. Recent material news – a significant raise in full‑year profit guidance and robust first‑quarter earnings – has driven a 9% share price rally and analyst upgrades, reinforcing short‑term optimism. Overall, the stock presents a mixed picture: bullish technical signals and strong growth prospects tempered by high valuation multiples and dividend sustainability risks.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings beat and raised profit forecast
  • Bullish price above key moving averages
  • Technical overbought signals and slight MACD bearish divergence

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong forward earnings growth (forward EPS $8.36)
  • Attractive dividend yield of 2.85% despite payout ratio concerns
  • Analyst upgrades and upside potential of ~9% to target price

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High valuation multiples relative to industry peers
  • Sustained regulatory and healthcare policy risk
  • Stable cash flow generation but dividend sustainability questions

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.10%
Profit Margin0.72%
P/E Ratio40.9
ROE3.75%
ROA2.67%
Debt/Equity100.91
P/B Ratio1.5
Op. Cash Flow$10.3B
Free Cash Flow$5.2B
Industry P/E27.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI65.4
Support$77.61
Resistance$98.43
MA 20$89.23
MA 50$80.67
MA 200$77.86
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair Value$16.69
Target Price$101.88
Upside/Downside9.25%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.85%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.21
Volatility36.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.