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CSX:NASDAQCSX Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-27 - not real-time

$39.55

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

CSX is trading at $39.55, just above its 20‑day SMA of 40.30 and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of 39.71, indicating a short‑term bullish bias despite a bearish MACD histogram. The RSI sits at 47, suggesting neutral momentum, while the 30‑day volatility of ~25% and a low beta of 0.75 point to modest price swings relative to the market. Fundamentals show a PE of 25.7 versus an industry average of 28.5, a forward PE of 18.95, and a solid ROE of 22.5%, positioning the stock as fairly valued with a growth‑value blend. Dividend sustainability looks strong with a 33.8% payout ratio and an 8% dividend hike, supporting a 1.42% yield. Recent material news – Jefferies raising its price target to $50 and reiterating a Buy, the launch of new high‑ranking CSX Select Sites, and a robust presentation on resilience and growth projects – adds upside catalysts. However, the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity of 148 and a P/B of 5.59, which temper enthusiasm. The market’s “Greed” sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 71.98) aligns with the bullish trend direction but the MACD signal warns of near‑term pull‑back risk.
Overall, CSX presents a balanced case: modest upside potential toward the median analyst target of $41, solid cash flow and dividend support, but with leverage and near‑term technical weakness that merit a cautious stance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating potential near‑term pullback
  • Price near recent support level at $37.88
  • Positive analyst upgrade and dividend hike providing upside buffer

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst price target raise to $50 and median target of $41
  • Strong ROE, cash flow generation and sustainable dividend
  • Strategic site designations and resilience initiatives supporting growth

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability with operating margin >32% and profit margin >20%
  • Robust asset base and market position in the railroad sector
  • Long‑term cash flow coverage of debt and dividend commitments

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.90%
Profit Margin20.50%
P/E Ratio25.7
ROE22.51%
ROA6.86%
Debt/Equity148.22
P/B Ratio5.6
Op. Cash Flow$4.6B
Free Cash Flow$970.5M
Industry P/E28.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI47.4
Support$37.88
Resistance$43.35
MA 20$40.30
MA 50$39.71
MA 200$36.00
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index71.98

Valuation

Target Price$41.02
Upside/Downside3.72%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.42%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.75
Volatility24.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.