CSX:NASDAQCSX Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-27 - not real-time
$39.55
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
CSX is trading at $39.55, just above its 20‑day SMA of 40.30 and comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of 39.71, indicating a short‑term bullish bias despite a bearish MACD histogram. The RSI sits at 47, suggesting neutral momentum, while the 30‑day volatility of ~25% and a low beta of 0.75 point to modest price swings relative to the market. Fundamentals show a PE of 25.7 versus an industry average of 28.5, a forward PE of 18.95, and a solid ROE of 22.5%, positioning the stock as fairly valued with a growth‑value blend. Dividend sustainability looks strong with a 33.8% payout ratio and an 8% dividend hike, supporting a 1.42% yield. Recent material news – Jefferies raising its price target to $50 and reiterating a Buy, the launch of new high‑ranking CSX Select Sites, and a robust presentation on resilience and growth projects – adds upside catalysts. However, the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity of 148 and a P/B of 5.59, which temper enthusiasm. The market’s “Greed” sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 71.98) aligns with the bullish trend direction but the MACD signal warns of near‑term pull‑back risk.
Overall, CSX presents a balanced case: modest upside potential toward the median analyst target of $41, solid cash flow and dividend support, but with leverage and near‑term technical weakness that merit a cautious stance.
Overall, CSX presents a balanced case: modest upside potential toward the median analyst target of $41, solid cash flow and dividend support, but with leverage and near‑term technical weakness that merit a cautious stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating potential near‑term pullback
- Price near recent support level at $37.88
- Positive analyst upgrade and dividend hike providing upside buffer
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Analyst price target raise to $50 and median target of $41
- Strong ROE, cash flow generation and sustainable dividend
- Strategic site designations and resilience initiatives supporting growth
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent profitability with operating margin >32% and profit margin >20%
- Robust asset base and market position in the railroad sector
- Long‑term cash flow coverage of debt and dividend commitments
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.90%
Profit Margin20.50%
P/E Ratio25.7
ROE22.51%
ROA6.86%
Debt/Equity148.22
P/B Ratio5.6
Op. Cash Flow$4.6B
Free Cash Flow$970.5M
Industry P/E28.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.4
Support$37.88
Resistance$43.35
MA 20$40.30
MA 50$39.71
MA 200$36.00
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index71.98
Valuation
Target Price$41.02
Upside/Downside3.72%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.42%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.75
Volatility24.90%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.