CPR:MILDavide Campari-Milano N.V. Analysis

The stock is trading at €5.456, slightly below its 20‑day SMA of €5.51 and well under the 50‑day and 200‑day averages (€5.83 and €5.89), confirming a short‑term bearish bias. However, the MACD histogram turned positive and the MACD signal is flagged as bullish, while RSI sits at a neutral 42.6, suggesting limited downside momentum and a potential bounce off the support level of €5.31. The price is also approaching a resistance around €5.74, offering a clear technical range for traders.
Fundamentally, CPR carries a trailing P/E of 18.8x and a forward P/E of 15.6x**, indicating modest valuation relative to earnings. Analysts project a mean target of €6.95, implying roughly 27% upside from current levels, despite a DCF‑derived fair value of only €1.82 that appears overly conservative. The company delivers a dividend yield of 1.83% with a comfortable payout ratio of 22%, backed by strong operating cash flow and a solid balance sheet.
Risk considerations are mixed: the stock’s beta is exceptionally low (0.03), pointing to minimal market‑wide volatility, yet 30‑day price volatility sits at 20%, reflecting intra‑day swings. As a consumer‑defensive player in the beverages sector, sector‑specific risk is low, while regulatory exposure (alcohol licensing) is medium and geographic exposure across multiple continents is medium. Liquidity is healthy with rising volume and a market cap of over €6.5 bn, supporting flexible trading.