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CPLE3:BMFBOVESPACompanhia Paranaense de Energia Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

R$14.87

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Companhia Paranaense de Energia (CPLE3) trades at R$14.87, comfortably above its immediate support of R$14.46 but well below the 52‑week high of R$17.13 and the DCF‑derived fair value of R$25.14, implying roughly a 20% upside. The stock is priced at a forward P/E of 12.5, markedly lower than the sector average of 22, and offers a hefty dividend yield of 7.21%—though the payout ratio exceeds 130%, raising concerns about sustainability. Recent earnings show a 16.7% rise in recurring EBITDA and a 20% revenue growth, indicating solid top‑line momentum, while the balance sheet remains leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity near 100%. Technicals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (15.30) sits above the price, the MACD is bearish, and the RSI at 42 suggests limited upside momentum in the short run.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above key support (R$14.46)
  • Bearish MACD and neutral trend signal limited upside
  • High dividend yield offset by unsustainable payout ratio

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation versus DCF fair value and sector P/E
  • Strong Q1 EBITDA (+16.7%) and 20% revenue growth
  • Attractive yield with potential for dividend policy adjustment

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Regulated utility business provides stable cash flows
  • High leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~100%) limits financial flexibility
  • Dividend sustainability concerns and potential regulatory/tax pressures

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth20.00%
Profit Margin9.95%
P/E Ratio16.3
ROE10.79%
ROA5.03%
Debt/Equity99.25
P/B Ratio1.9
Op. Cash FlowR$2.6B
Free Cash FlowR$3.2B
Industry P/E22.0

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI41.6
SupportR$14.46
ResistanceR$16.75
MA 20R$15.30
MA 50R$15.58
MA 200R$13.46
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.8

Valuation

Fair ValueR$25.14
Target PriceR$17.91
Upside/Downside20.44%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield7.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.59
Volatility23.17%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.