CPLE3:BMFBOVESPACompanhia Paranaense de Energia Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
Latest Price
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (CPLE3) trades at R$14.87, comfortably above its immediate support of R$14.46 but well below the 52‑week high of R$17.13 and the DCF‑derived fair value of R$25.14, implying roughly a 20% upside. The stock is priced at a forward P/E of 12.5, markedly lower than the sector average of 22, and offers a hefty dividend yield of 7.21%—though the payout ratio exceeds 130%, raising concerns about sustainability. Recent earnings show a 16.7% rise in recurring EBITDA and a 20% revenue growth, indicating solid top‑line momentum, while the balance sheet remains leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity near 100%. Technicals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (15.30) sits above the price, the MACD is bearish, and the RSI at 42 suggests limited upside momentum in the short run.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearKey Factors
- Price hovering just above key support (R$14.46)
- Bearish MACD and neutral trend signal limited upside
- High dividend yield offset by unsustainable payout ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsKey Factors
- Undervaluation versus DCF fair value and sector P/E
- Strong Q1 EBITDA (+16.7%) and 20% revenue growth
- Attractive yield with potential for dividend policy adjustment
Long Term
> 3 yearsKey Factors
- Regulated utility business provides stable cash flows
- High leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~100%) limits financial flexibility
- Dividend sustainability concerns and potential regulatory/tax pressures
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Technical Analysis
Valuation
Risk Assessment
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.