We use cookies to analyze site traffic and improve your experience.
By accepting, you consent to the use of analytics cookies.

CMIG4:BMFBOVESPACompanhia Energetica de Minas Gerais SA Pfd Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

R$10.73

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

CMIG4 trades at R$10.73, modestly above its DCF‑derived fair value of R$9.85, yet its trailing P/E of 6.27 is dramatically below the utilities industry average of 20.5, hinting at a potential value edge. The stock carries an eye‑catching dividend yield of 11.8% but a payout ratio of 99% and negative free cash flow raise sustainability concerns. Technicals show the price sitting just above the nearest support (R$10.65) with a neutral trend, an RSI of 33 indicating oversold conditions, and a bullish MACD histogram, suggesting short‑term upside potential. Volatility remains elevated at ~22% over the past 30 days, while a low beta (~0.41) points to limited systematic risk, though Brazil‑specific regulatory and currency factors add moderate headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI below 35
  • Bullish MACD histogram
  • Price near support with upside to R$11.68 resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Low P/E relative to industry suggests value
  • High dividend yield offset by near‑100% payout and negative free cash flow
  • Stable regulated revenue with modest 6% growth

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Utilities sector offers defensive cash flow stability
  • Regulatory and currency exposure in Brazil
  • Dividend sustainability concerns may pressure total return

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.30%
Profit Margin11.15%
P/E Ratio6.3
ROE17.04%
ROA5.93%
Debt/Equity69.26
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowR$3.8B
Free Cash FlowR$-3623300352
Industry P/E20.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI33.1
SupportR$10.65
ResistanceR$11.68
MA 20R$11.05
MA 50R$12.06
MA 200R$11.52
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair ValueR$9.85
Target PriceR$12.54
Upside/Downside16.83%
GradeFair
TypeValue
Dividend Yield11.83%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.41
Volatility21.72%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.