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CHD:NYSEChurch & Dwight Company, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-30 - not real-time

$97.90

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Church & Dwight is trading in a bullish technical environment, with the 20‑day SMA above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages and a MACD histogram that remains positive. The RSI sits near the midpoint, suggesting no immediate over‑bought pressure, while volume has been on an upward trend, reinforcing the price momentum. The stock is holding above its recent support around $92.5 and faces a near‑term resistance ceiling just above $100, a level that aligns with the current market price. Volatility is elevated at roughly 25% over the past month, but the beta is essentially neutral, indicating limited correlation with broader market swings. Investor sentiment is extremely optimistic, as reflected by an “Extreme Greed” reading on the fear‑and‑greed index. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid profitability margins and a respectable ROE near 17%. However, revenue growth has stalled at about 0.2% year‑over‑year, and the balance sheet carries a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 57%, which tempers the otherwise strong cash‑flow generation. The forward earnings multiple has compressed to the low‑20s, yet the trailing PE remains above 30, and a DCF model values the shares well below the current price, flagging a potential overvaluation. Dividend sustainability looks sound, with a payout ratio under 40% and a modest 1.3% yield. Analyst consensus points to a modest upside of roughly 5‑7% based on target prices in the low‑$100s. The upcoming Q2 earnings webcast on July 31 will be a key catalyst to confirm whether the bullish technical setup can translate into earnings momentum.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price approaching short‑term resistance
  • Elevated 30‑day volatility
  • Upcoming earnings release

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash‑flow and dividend yield
  • Analyst target prices indicating upside
  • Strong brand portfolio in a defensive sector

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent profitability margins
  • Moderate leverage with solid debt service capacity
  • Defensive consumer‑staples positioning

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth0.20%
Profit Margin11.81%
P/E Ratio32.2
ROE16.78%
ROA8.14%
Debt/Equity56.79
P/B Ratio5.5
Op. Cash Flow$1.2B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI53.2
Support$92.57
Resistance$100.12
MA 20$96.74
MA 50$95.82
MA 200$92.05
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.91

Valuation

Fair Value$56.33
Target Price$102.53
Upside/Downside4.73%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.26%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.10
Volatility25.43%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.