CF:NYSECF Industries Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-13 - not real-time
$133.07
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is bullish at $133.07, with short-term averages leading the long-term ones. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 5.8%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 56.9 (neutral) with MACD reading bullish. The recent range runs from support at $116.74 up to resistance at $141.66.
The shares look fair at 9.9 times earnings, though no sector average was available for comparison. The average analyst target implies 5.9% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 17.6% on a 27.1% profit margin. The 1.80% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 6 out of 10, which is elevated for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 42.0%, a beta of -0.93 and a maximum drawdown of 25.7%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on buy, with conviction of 4/10.
The shares look fair at 9.9 times earnings, though no sector average was available for comparison. The average analyst target implies 5.9% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 17.6% on a 27.1% profit margin. The 1.80% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 6 out of 10, which is elevated for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 42.0%, a beta of -0.93 and a maximum drawdown of 25.7%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on buy, with conviction of 4/10.
Top Market Events
Seeking Alpha1monCF Industries shares slide on quarterly profit shortfallCF Industries Holdings CF missed Wall Street's...CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Reports First Half 2026 Net Earnings of $1.34 Billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $2.18 BillionNORTHBROOK, Ill., July 08, 2026--CF Industries Holdings, Inc. NYSE: CF today reported that its board of directors has...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 109.20
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 109.20
- Analyst targets imply -5.9% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply -5.9% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 27.1% is healthy
- Revenue growth of +17.6%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth17.60%
Profit Margin27.12%
P/E Ratio9.9
ROE29.87%
ROA12.93%
Debt/Equity40.50
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$3.0B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI56.9
Support$116.74
Resistance$141.66
MA 20$129.03
MA 50$123.45
MA 200$109.20
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.14
Valuation
Fair Value$206.84
Target Price$125.25
Upside/Downside-5.88%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.80%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.93
Volatility42.01%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.