CEN:NZXContact Energy Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-03 - not real-time
$44.77
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Century Aluminum is trading close to its short‑term moving average with a neutral RSI and a bullish MACD histogram, suggesting limited upside in the near term.
The stock’s current price sits well above its discounted cash‑flow estimate, indicating it may be overvalued despite an attractive forward PE and strong earnings growth expectations.
High beta and 30‑day volatility point to pronounced price swings, while a solid market cap and stable volume mitigate liquidity concerns. Fundamentals show solid profit margins and a healthy return on equity, yet negative free cash flow and a modest debt‑to‑equity ratio add financial caution.
The stock’s current price sits well above its discounted cash‑flow estimate, indicating it may be overvalued despite an attractive forward PE and strong earnings growth expectations.
High beta and 30‑day volatility point to pronounced price swings, while a solid market cap and stable volume mitigate liquidity concerns. Fundamentals show solid profit margins and a healthy return on equity, yet negative free cash flow and a modest debt‑to‑equity ratio add financial caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price near short‑term support level
- bullish MACD histogram indicating potential short‑term stability
- neutral RSI suggesting no immediate overbought pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- forward earnings growth outpacing current earnings
- significant gap between market price and DCF fair value
- elevated beta and volatility increasing price uncertainty
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- market price substantially above intrinsic value per DCF
- negative free cash flow and moderate debt load
- cyclical aluminum sector exposure and high commodity risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.40%
Profit Margin13.68%
P/E Ratio13.3
ROE32.26%
ROA5.46%
Debt/Equity42.50
P/B Ratio3.9
Op. Cash Flow$181.1M
Free Cash Flow$-85825000
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.9
Support$40.40
Resistance$47.35
MA 20$44.63
MA 50$52.04
MA 200$47.47
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$15.16
Target Price$74.00
Upside/Downside65.29%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.59
Volatility53.67%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.