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CDNS:NASDAQCadence Design Systems, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-21 - not real-time

$350.89

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Cadence Design Systems posted an impressive 18.7% year‑over‑year revenue increase to $1.47 B in Q1 CY2026, driven by a record $8 B backlog and AI‑enhanced verification tools. The company’s ultra‑high gross margin of 86% and operating margin near 30% underscore a durable competitive advantage, while free cash flow remains strong at $1.5 B. However, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 82× versus an industry average of 39× and a DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $145, implying the market is pricing in a substantial premium. Technical signals are mixed: price sits just below the $365 resistance, above the $311 support, MACD has turned bearish, and volume is trending down, all against a backdrop of a 46% 30‑day volatility and a beta of 1.57. Analyst sentiment remains highly favorable (strong‑buy consensus) and the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” suggesting momentum may be overstretched. In this context, investors should weigh the strong growth narrative against the elevated valuation and heightened short‑term risk before deciding on positioning.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
  • Price approaching near‑term resistance at $365
  • Current valuation far above DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained 18.7% revenue growth and record backlog
  • Strong operating cash flow and high gross margins
  • Valuation remains elevated but earnings momentum is solid

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Secular demand for advanced chip design and AI‑driven EDA tools
  • Robust free cash flow generation and high ROE
  • Strategic collaborations (e.g., NVIDIA) expanding market reach

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth18.70%
Profit Margin21.18%
P/E Ratio82.0
ROE20.66%
ROA10.39%
Debt/Equity46.99
P/B Ratio14.5
Op. Cash Flow$1.6B
Free Cash Flow$1.5B
Industry P/E38.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI59.4
Support$311.00
Resistance$365.01
MA 20$344.95
MA 50$312.20
MA 200$322.55
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.25

Valuation

Fair Value$144.51
Target Price$379.55
Upside/Downside8.17%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.57
Volatility46.87%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.