CBOE:CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$286.11
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Cboe Global Markets is trading at $286.11, just below its 20‑day SMA of $289.29 but comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of $274.79, indicating a short‑term pullback within a longer‑term bullish framework. The RSI sits at 49.4, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, pointing to modest downside pressure in the near term.
Fundamentally, the firm posted 8.7% revenue growth, a robust operating margin of 36%, and free cash flow of $1.27 B, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 0.93% with a modest 26% payout ratio. However, the current price exceeds the DCF fair value of $248.28 and trades at a PE of 27.5 versus an industry average of 17.4, marking the stock as overvalued.
Recent material news highlights the launch of cash‑settled Russell 2000 options and expanded 24‑hour trading windows, alongside an earnings beat (EPS $2.99 vs. $2.93 estimate) and the declaration of the Q1 2026 dividend. These catalysts reinforce CBOE’s growth narrative, yet the high 30‑day volatility of 26% and a beta near zero suggest price swings may continue, warranting a cautious stance.
Fundamentally, the firm posted 8.7% revenue growth, a robust operating margin of 36%, and free cash flow of $1.27 B, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 0.93% with a modest 26% payout ratio. However, the current price exceeds the DCF fair value of $248.28 and trades at a PE of 27.5 versus an industry average of 17.4, marking the stock as overvalued.
Recent material news highlights the launch of cash‑settled Russell 2000 options and expanded 24‑hour trading windows, alongside an earnings beat (EPS $2.99 vs. $2.93 estimate) and the declaration of the Q1 2026 dividend. These catalysts reinforce CBOE’s growth narrative, yet the high 30‑day volatility of 26% and a beta near zero suggest price swings may continue, warranting a cautious stance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price correction toward the $267.5 support level
- Bearish MACD signal and neutral RSI
- Elevated 30‑day volatility (26%)
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustained revenue growth (8.7%) and strong cash generation
- Expansion of product suite (new RUT options, 24×5 trading)
- Positive earnings surprise and dividend continuation
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Market‑leader position in derivatives and data services
- Regulatory environment that can both protect and constrain
- Valuation premium relative to peers and modest dividend yield
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.70%
Profit Margin23.33%
P/E Ratio27.5
ROE23.36%
ROA11.12%
Debt/Equity30.96
P/B Ratio5.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.8B
Free Cash Flow$1.3B
Industry P/E17.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.4
Support$267.50
Resistance$305.68
MA 20$289.29
MA 50$274.79
MA 200$249.58
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index80.29
Valuation
Fair Value$248.28
Target Price$286.08
Upside/Downside-0.01%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.93%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.11
Volatility26.22%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.