CBK:XETRCommerzbank AG Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
$28.69
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) is trading just above its 20‑day SMA while the 20‑day SMA sits above the 50‑day SMA, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The 200‑day SMA remains lower, supporting a longer‑term uptrend. RSI hovers in the mid‑50s, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. MACD shows a bearish histogram and the signal line is above the MACD line, warning of potential near‑term weakness. Volume has been increasing, adding credibility to the price movement.
Fundamentals reveal a low trailing PE of around ten versus an industry average of over sixteen, pointing to relative cheapness. The DCF fair value exceeds the current price by roughly eighteen percent, implying upside potential. Operating margins are robust and the payout ratio is under four percent, making the 0.7% dividend highly sustainable. The balance sheet shows ample cash relative to debt and a beta well below one, indicating limited market sensitivity. However, regional banks face medium regulatory and sector risks that could temper gains. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with a blend of value and modest growth characteristics.
Fundamentals reveal a low trailing PE of around ten versus an industry average of over sixteen, pointing to relative cheapness. The DCF fair value exceeds the current price by roughly eighteen percent, implying upside potential. Operating margins are robust and the payout ratio is under four percent, making the 0.7% dividend highly sustainable. The balance sheet shows ample cash relative to debt and a beta well below one, indicating limited market sensitivity. However, regional banks face medium regulatory and sector risks that could temper gains. Overall, the stock appears undervalued with a blend of value and modest growth characteristics.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- 20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA indicating bullish bias
- MACD bearish histogram suggesting near‑term weakness
- Increasing volume supporting price movement
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation indicates ~18% upside
- Low PE relative to industry peers
- Strong operating margins and cash generation
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend with low payout ratio
- Low beta and solid balance sheet
- Blend of value pricing and modest growth prospects
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.30%
Profit Margin41.77%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE14.64%
ROA1.65%
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$38.4M
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.2
Support$27.25
Resistance$29.75
MA 20$28.68
MA 50$27.61
MA 200$25.85
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.8
Valuation
Fair Value$35.68
Target Price$34.00
Upside/Downside18.51%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.70%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.51
Volatility21.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.