CAR:ASXCAR Group Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
A$25.69
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
CAR Group Limited is trading at AUD 25.69, well above its DCF‑derived fair value of roughly AUD 12.86, indicating a sizable valuation premium. The stock sits just above its 20‑day SMA (25.49) but remains below the 50‑day (27.60) and 200‑day (34.18) averages, while the RSI of 46 suggests neutral momentum and the MACD histogram turning positive hints at a short‑term bullish flicker amid an overall bearish trend. Operating margins are strong at 37% and cash flow generation is robust, yet the dividend payout ratio exceeds 100%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. With a 30‑day volatility of over 54% and a beta under 0.7, the share is volatile but less correlated to the market, and the current “Extreme Greed” sentiment (Fear‑Greed Index 75.6) may be inflating price expectations.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price above short‑term SMA but below longer‑term averages
- Overvaluation relative to DCF and industry P/E
- High short‑term volatility and bearish trend direction
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating margins and cash flow generation
- Revenue growth of 8% and expanding international footprint
- Dividend payout ratio >100% creating sustainability concerns
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Sustained high gross margin (≈87%) and solid ROE
- Potential for valuation correction as market sentiment normalises
- Diversified geographic exposure offering growth upside
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.00%
Profit Margin24.01%
P/E Ratio32.9
ROE10.43%
ROA6.13%
Debt/Equity50.71
P/B Ratio3.4
Op. Cash FlowA$569.0M
Free Cash FlowA$312.1M
Industry P/E18.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI46.5
SupportA$23.72
ResistanceA$26.77
MA 20A$25.49
MA 50A$27.60
MA 200A$34.18
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.59
Valuation
Fair ValueA$12.86
Target PriceA$35.50
Upside/Downside38.17%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield3.27%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.67
Volatility54.39%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.