CAE:TSXCAE Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
CA$37.60
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
CAE Inc. is trading at CAD 37.6, just above its 20‑day SMA of 40.12 and below the 200‑day SMA of 39.58, indicating a price caught between short‑term momentum and long‑term trend. The RSI of 34.3 suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, pointing to continued downside pressure in the near term. Volume is decreasing and the technical trend is neutral, with the price hovering near the identified support level of CAD 36.83 and well below the resistance at CAD 44.68.
Recent material news highlights a strategic leadership reshuffle in the Defense & Security segment and a 2% revenue growth in Q3 2026 driven by strong defense performance. The company’s fundamentals show a modest 2.3% revenue growth, solid operating cash flow of CAD 929 M, but a high valuation: a trailing PE of 31.9 versus the industry average of 29.1 and a DCF‑derived fair value of only CAD 13.95. Despite a beta of 1.03 and a 30‑day volatility of 33%, the broader market sentiment is bullish, reflected by a fear‑greed index of 72.9 (Greed). Overall, the stock presents a mixed picture: defensive growth tailwinds and recent executive focus contrast with elevated valuation metrics and bearish short‑term technical signals.
Recent material news highlights a strategic leadership reshuffle in the Defense & Security segment and a 2% revenue growth in Q3 2026 driven by strong defense performance. The company’s fundamentals show a modest 2.3% revenue growth, solid operating cash flow of CAD 929 M, but a high valuation: a trailing PE of 31.9 versus the industry average of 29.1 and a DCF‑derived fair value of only CAD 13.95. Despite a beta of 1.03 and a 30‑day volatility of 33%, the broader market sentiment is bullish, reflected by a fear‑greed index of 72.9 (Greed). Overall, the stock presents a mixed picture: defensive growth tailwinds and recent executive focus contrast with elevated valuation metrics and bearish short‑term technical signals.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support at CAD 36.83
- RSI indicating oversold conditions
- Bearish MACD despite neutral trend
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Defense segment revenue growth and leadership changes
- Positive earnings outlook with forward EPS growth
- Analyst consensus rating of "Buy" and target median price of CAD 48.5
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term defense contracts and global footprint
- Sustained high valuation relative to DCF fair value
- Moderate sector and regulatory risks
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.30%
Profit Margin7.73%
P/E Ratio31.9
ROE7.72%
ROA3.74%
Debt/Equity61.83
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash FlowCA$929.0M
Free Cash FlowCA$484.4M
Industry P/E29.1
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI34.3
SupportCA$36.83
ResistanceCA$44.68
MA 20CA$40.12
MA 50CA$42.78
MA 200CA$39.58
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$13.95
Target PriceCA$47.00
Upside/Downside25.00%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.03
Volatility32.97%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.