BTRW:LSEBarratt Redrow plc Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
£261.50
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Barratt Redrow is trading below its 200‑day average and its price is still under pressure from a broader bearish trend, yet the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages sit just under the current level, hinting at short‑term support. Technical momentum shows a bullish MACD crossover and a neutral RSI around 55, suggesting limited upside to the nearby resistance around 268 pence.
The stock’s headline appeal stems from an **exceptional 6.7% dividend yield**, but the payout ratio exceeds 100% and free cash flow is negative, raising serious doubts about sustainability. Valuation metrics are mixed: a forward P/E near 10 and analyst price targets around £344‑350 imply ~30% upside, while a discounted cash‑flow model values the company at roughly £149, indicating it may be **overvalued at current levels**. High 30‑day volatility (≈34%) and a low beta (~0.5) point to isolated price swings rather than market‑wide moves. Material news highlights recent share‑buyback activity, but analyst commentary focuses on the dividend’s attractiveness despite the recent 65% price decline.
The stock’s headline appeal stems from an **exceptional 6.7% dividend yield**, but the payout ratio exceeds 100% and free cash flow is negative, raising serious doubts about sustainability. Valuation metrics are mixed: a forward P/E near 10 and analyst price targets around £344‑350 imply ~30% upside, while a discounted cash‑flow model values the company at roughly £149, indicating it may be **overvalued at current levels**. High 30‑day volatility (≈34%) and a low beta (~0.5) point to isolated price swings rather than market‑wide moves. Material news highlights recent share‑buyback activity, but analyst commentary focuses on the dividend’s attractiveness despite the recent 65% price decline.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near short‑term support and resistance levels
- Bullish MACD signal but decreasing volume
- Elevated volatility may cause rapid moves
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Analyst price targets suggest ~30% upside
- Revenue growth of ~15% and improving forward earnings
- Current valuation offers a discount to forward earnings multiples
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Dividend yield likely unsustainable given negative free cash flow
- DCF fair value far below market price
- Cyclical exposure to UK residential construction adds sector risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth15.40%
Profit Margin3.64%
P/E Ratio17.4
ROE2.76%
ROA3.03%
Debt/Equity3.24
P/B Ratio0.5
Op. Cash Flow£112.4M
Free Cash Flow£-77225000
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI55.0
Support£238.50
Resistance£268.00
MA 20£255.55
MA 50£256.96
MA 200£337.93
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.73
Valuation
Fair Value£149.30
Target Price£344.26
Upside/Downside31.65%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.70%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.49
Volatility33.97%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.