BSL:ASXBluescope Steel Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
A$33.71
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
BlueScope Steel is trading in a bullish technical environment – price sits above the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs, RSI is in the mid‑60s and MACD shows a bullish crossover – yet the market price is modestly above its DCF‑derived fair value, indicating limited upside.
Fundamentally the company carries a high PE ratio and a payout ratio exceeding 100%, raising questions about dividend sustainability, while its debt‑to‑equity ratio is unusually high for the sector. The blend of strong short‑term momentum and underlying valuation pressures suggests a cautious approach.
Fundamentally the company carries a high PE ratio and a payout ratio exceeding 100%, raising questions about dividend sustainability, while its debt‑to‑equity ratio is unusually high for the sector. The blend of strong short‑term momentum and underlying valuation pressures suggests a cautious approach.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, MACD bullish)
- Proximity to resistance limiting near‑term upside
- High current PE ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings outlook improves valuation (forward PE ~15)
- Attractive dividend yield if payout can be normalized
- Potential recovery in steel demand across Asia and North America
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio increases financial risk
- Cyclical nature of the steel industry and exposure to regulatory changes
- Dividend sustainability concerns with payout >100%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.00%
Profit Margin1.78%
P/E Ratio59.1
ROE3.43%
ROA3.69%
Debt/Equity9.45
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash FlowA$1.6B
Free Cash FlowA$48.1M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI66.0
SupportA$29.72
ResistanceA$34.14
MA 20A$32.29
MA 50A$30.61
MA 200A$26.52
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.04
Valuation
Fair ValueA$1.73
Target PriceA$32.62
Upside/Downside-3.25%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.79%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.65
Volatility24.84%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.