BLZE:NASDAQBackblaze, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$13.72
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Backblaze (BLZE) shows a mixed technical picture. The 20‑day SMA sits above the 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs, supporting the overall bullish trend direction, while the RSI hovers in the mid‑50s, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the MACD is in a bearish alignment with a negative histogram, and volume is trending lower, suggesting short‑term caution as price approaches a key resistance zone.
Fundamentally, the company is riding a wave of AI‑driven demand. Revenue is growing double‑digit year‑over‑year and a newly announced multi‑year, $335 million AI storage contract with CoreWeave adds a credible growth catalyst. Despite positive operating cash flow and a modest upside potential per valuation models, the stock trades well above its DCF fair value, carries a very high forward PE, and shows elevated volatility and beta, flagging valuation and risk concerns.
Fundamentally, the company is riding a wave of AI‑driven demand. Revenue is growing double‑digit year‑over‑year and a newly announced multi‑year, $335 million AI storage contract with CoreWeave adds a credible growth catalyst. Despite positive operating cash flow and a modest upside potential per valuation models, the stock trades well above its DCF fair value, carries a very high forward PE, and shows elevated volatility and beta, flagging valuation and risk concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram despite bullish SMA alignment
- Decreasing volume trend near resistance level
- Support level provides downside cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Multi‑year AI storage contract with CoreWeave fueling revenue growth
- Strong operating cash flow and improving free cash flow
- Analyst consensus leaning bullish with a buy recommendation
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term AI and data‑intensive workload tailwinds
- High valuation multiples relative to industry peers
- Elevated beta and volatility indicating sustained market risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.70%
Profit Margin-14.97%
P/E Ratio84.7
ROE-27.63%
ROA-5.17%
Debt/Equity73.67
P/B Ratio9.7
Op. Cash Flow$22.0M
Free Cash Flow$21.3M
Industry P/E32.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.4
Support$10.98
Resistance$18.25
MA 20$14.21
MA 50$11.47
MA 200$6.77
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Fair Value$7.15
Target Price$15.17
Upside/Downside10.54%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.95
Volatility139.37%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.