BHP:ASXBHP Group Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-26 - not real-time
A$67.40
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
BHP Group Limited is priced at AUD 67.40 and its moving averages line up in bullish order, the shorter sitting above the longer. Over a rolling month the price has gained 11.3%. With RSI at 68.1 the momentum picture is approaching overbought, alongside a bullish MACD signal. Price has been bracketed by support at AUD 59.06 and resistance at AUD 68.77.
Valuation screens as overvalued, on a P/E of 25.0 with no clean sector comparison available. Consensus targets land 10.3% below where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 18.3% on a 16.7% profit margin. The 3.61% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 5 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.0%, a beta of 0.82 and a maximum drawdown of 20.5%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: buy near-term but hold on a long view, at 3/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
Valuation screens as overvalued, on a P/E of 25.0 with no clean sector comparison available. Consensus targets land 10.3% below where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 18.3% on a 16.7% profit margin. The 3.61% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 5 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.0%, a beta of 0.82 and a maximum drawdown of 20.5%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: buy near-term but hold on a long view, at 3/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
Top Market Events
BHP Group Limited recently reported full-year 2026 results, with sales rising to US$58,760 million and net income...Materials, banking, healthcare and retail heavyweights reveal diverging outlooks.BHP Group Ltd ASX: BHP shares have been realtilvely stable throughout July.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 54.02
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 54.02
- Analyst targets imply -10.3% versus the current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply -10.3% versus the current price
- Profit margin of 16.7% is healthy
- Revenue growth of +18.3%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.30%
Profit Margin16.73%
P/E Ratio25.0
ROE24.00%
ROA13.43%
Debt/Equity50.47
P/B Ratio4.8
Op. Cash FlowA$21.8B
Free Cash FlowA$9.6B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI68.1
SupportA$59.06
ResistanceA$68.77
MA 20A$63.38
MA 50A$61.02
MA 200A$54.02
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.27
Valuation
Fair ValueA$49.60
Target PriceA$60.44
Upside/Downside-10.33%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.61%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.82
Volatility28.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.