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BC:MILBrunello Cucinelli S.p.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-12 - not real-time

€87.56

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Brunello Cucinelli shows strong pricing power and brand loyalty, reflected in a robust gross margin above 50% and an operating margin near 17%, while the recent CEO comments underscore a commitment to long‑term integrity that supports sustainable growth. Technical signals are largely positive, with the MACD line sitting comfortably above its signal line and a RSI in the low‑60s, indicating continued upward momentum, yet the stock trades near the upper end of its recent range and faces a notable valuation gap. The company’s dividend payout sits under 50% of earnings and free cash flow remains positive, suggesting the current yield is defensible despite a modest payout ratio. However, a high price‑to‑earnings multiple and a price‑to‑book ratio well above ten point to significant premium pricing relative to fundamentals, and the DCF model signals a far lower intrinsic value. In this context, the stock appears overvalued in the short run, but the brand’s resilience and dividend sustainability provide a foundation for a longer‑term hold.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and RSI indicating near‑term momentum
  • Stock price close to resistance level
  • High valuation multiples relative to earnings

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained brand premium and strong margins
  • Dividend sustainability supported by free cash flow
  • Valuation still above fair value but potential for price correction

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term strategic focus on integrity and quality
  • Stable cash generation and moderate payout ratio
  • Growth potential in luxury segment despite current overvaluation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth10.00%
Profit Margin9.59%
P/E Ratio44.2
ROE26.52%
ROA7.81%
Debt/Equity210.72
P/B Ratio10.9
Op. Cash Flow€242.6M
Free Cash Flow€95.0M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI62.1
Support€78.84
Resistance€89.14
MA 20€83.58
MA 50€83.17
MA 200€87.29
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index86.59

Valuation

Fair Value€13.32
Target Price€101.71
Upside/Downside16.16%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.21%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility27.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.