BBNI:IDXPT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Class B Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time
IDR 3,780.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
BBNI is trading well below its 20‑day (3,828), 50‑day (3,882) and 200‑day (4,206) moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI around 45, indicating short‑term price weakness. Fundamentally, the bank looks cheap – its trailing P/E of 6.9 is far below the industry average of 16.8 and its P/B of 0.87 is under 1, while analysts project a 26% upside to a median target of 4,800. Revenue is growing at roughly 8% YoY and profit margins remain robust (≈40%), but operating cash flow is deeply negative and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 130%, raising sustainability concerns. Recent earnings‑call material and market sentiment (extreme greed index) suggest optimism, yet technical indicators and decreasing volume point to near‑term volatility.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below all key moving averages
- Decreasing volume and bearish MACD
- High dividend payout may be cut
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation discount to peers
- Analyst consensus strong‑buy with 26% upside
- Revenue growth and strong profit margins
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Low beta indicating defensive profile
- Sustainable earnings generation and ROE ~12%
- Potential for dividend policy normalization
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth7.80%
Profit Margin40.03%
P/E Ratio6.9
ROE12.03%
ROA1.58%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowIDR-148624340156416
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI45.4
SupportIDR 3,680.00
ResistanceIDR 3,990.00
MA 20IDR 3,828.00
MA 50IDR 3,882.40
MA 200IDR 4,205.90
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61
Valuation
Target PriceIDR 4,788.05
Upside/Downside26.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield9.24%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.19
Volatility28.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.