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BBNI:IDXPT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Class B Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-23 - not real-time

IDR 3,780.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

BBNI is trading well below its 20‑day (3,828), 50‑day (3,882) and 200‑day (4,206) moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram and a neutral RSI around 45, indicating short‑term price weakness. Fundamentally, the bank looks cheap – its trailing P/E of 6.9 is far below the industry average of 16.8 and its P/B of 0.87 is under 1, while analysts project a 26% upside to a median target of 4,800. Revenue is growing at roughly 8% YoY and profit margins remain robust (≈40%), but operating cash flow is deeply negative and the dividend payout ratio exceeds 130%, raising sustainability concerns. Recent earnings‑call material and market sentiment (extreme greed index) suggest optimism, yet technical indicators and decreasing volume point to near‑term volatility.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all key moving averages
  • Decreasing volume and bearish MACD
  • High dividend payout may be cut

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount to peers
  • Analyst consensus strong‑buy with 26% upside
  • Revenue growth and strong profit margins

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta indicating defensive profile
  • Sustainable earnings generation and ROE ~12%
  • Potential for dividend policy normalization

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.80%
Profit Margin40.03%
P/E Ratio6.9
ROE12.03%
ROA1.58%
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowIDR-148624340156416
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI45.4
SupportIDR 3,680.00
ResistanceIDR 3,990.00
MA 20IDR 3,828.00
MA 50IDR 3,882.40
MA 200IDR 4,205.90
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Target PriceIDR 4,788.05
Upside/Downside26.67%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield9.24%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.19
Volatility28.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.