AZJ:ASXAurizon Holdings Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time
A$4.36
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Aurizon is trading just below its 52‑week high and comfortably above both the short‑term and intermediate moving averages, indicating a bullish technical backdrop. Momentum gauges such as RSI in the upper‑mid range and a bullish MACD histogram reinforce short‑term strength, while the low beta suggests limited sensitivity to broader market swings.
Valuation metrics show a price‑to‑earnings multiple comfortably below the industry average and a price‑to‑book ratio under two, pointing to a relatively attractive entry point. The dividend yield remains robust at over four percent with a payout ratio near ninety percent, supported by positive free cash flow, though the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding one hundred.
The upside/downside projection signals that the current price is above analyst target levels, implying limited near‑term upside and potential for a pull‑back toward median targets. Sector exposure to coal freight adds medium regulatory and commodity‑price risk, while the company’s diversified rail network and stable cash generation underpin its long‑term dividend sustainability.
Valuation metrics show a price‑to‑earnings multiple comfortably below the industry average and a price‑to‑book ratio under two, pointing to a relatively attractive entry point. The dividend yield remains robust at over four percent with a payout ratio near ninety percent, supported by positive free cash flow, though the balance sheet is heavily leveraged with a debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeding one hundred.
The upside/downside projection signals that the current price is above analyst target levels, implying limited near‑term upside and potential for a pull‑back toward median targets. Sector exposure to coal freight adds medium regulatory and commodity‑price risk, while the company’s diversified rail network and stable cash generation underpin its long‑term dividend sustainability.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, RSI in bullish zone)
- High dividend yield with near‑full earnings coverage
- Price already above analyst median target limiting upside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Valuation near fair; PE below industry but high leverage
- Sustained cash flow supporting dividend
- Medium regulatory and commodity exposure
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to sector peers on PE and P/B
- Strategic rail network assets offering stable cash generation
- Attractive dividend yield if leverage can be managed
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.10%
Profit Margin7.63%
P/E Ratio24.2
ROE7.23%
ROA4.71%
Debt/Equity136.85
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash FlowA$1.5B
Free Cash FlowA$357.2M
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI64.5
SupportA$4.12
ResistanceA$4.42
MA 20A$4.25
MA 50A$4.17
MA 200A$3.71
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Target PriceA$3.87
Upside/Downside-11.29%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.36%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.28
Volatility18.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.