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AWK:NYSEAmerican Water Works Company, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-21 - not real-time

$125.07

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

American Water Works (AWK) trades around $125, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA and below both its 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs, signaling a bearish bias in the short‑term price action. The RSI sits near the midpoint at 48, while the MACD histogram is positive despite a bearish overall trend, suggesting limited upside momentum.
Fundamentally, the company posted 5.7% revenue growth, an operating margin above 30%, and reaffirmed its full‑year EPS guidance, while maintaining a 7‑9% dividend growth outlook and an 8% quarterly dividend increase. The recent $185 million PFAS settlement and pending rate cases in five jurisdictions provide a potential earnings tailwind, but a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and negative free cash flow temper the outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near recent support level and below key moving averages
  • Bearish technical momentum despite a modest MACD histogram
  • Attractive dividend yield offsetting short‑term downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Confirmed EPS guidance and 7‑9% dividend growth plan
  • Potential rate‑case earnings uplift in key states
  • High leverage and negative free cash flow requiring monitoring

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Secular demand for water services and regulated revenue base
  • Consistent dividend increases supported by rate case outcomes
  • Long‑term cash‑flow visibility despite current debt load

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.70%
Profit Margin21.17%
P/E Ratio22.2
ROE10.22%
ROA3.51%
Debt/Equity142.33
P/B Ratio2.2
Op. Cash Flow$2.0B
Free Cash Flow$-1896625024
Industry P/E20.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI48.5
Support$120.57
Resistance$128.74
MA 20$124.44
MA 50$127.49
MA 200$132.16
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.46

Valuation

Fair Value$42.92
Target Price$135.55
Upside/Downside8.38%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.86%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.42
Volatility20.53%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.