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AWK:NYSEAmerican Water Works Company, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$134.47

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

American Water Works (AWK) trades at $134.47, roughly 2.4% above its DCF‑derived fair value of $50.22, indicating a significant premium. The stock carries a forward PE of 20.46 versus an industry average of 20.81 and a trailing PE of 23.63, while its dividend yield stands at 2.4% with a payout ratio of 57%, suggesting a modestly attractive income component. Recent earnings showed a $1.70 EPS boost from authorized rate increases, acquisitions and organic growth, and the company has deployed $3.2 bn in capital projects aimed at pipe replacement, PFAS remediation and smart‑metering, underscoring a strong growth narrative. Technical signals are mixed: the 20‑day SMA (132.98) sits just below the current price, the MACD histogram remains positive (0.27) and the RSI is neutral at 54, but volume is trending down and the market direction is classified as neutral. Risk factors include a high 30‑day volatility of 26.3% and a negative beta (‑0.23), while regulatory exposure is elevated with pending rate cases in several states. Overall, the stock appears overvalued on valuation metrics but benefits from stable regulated cash flows and a solid dividend, making it a nuanced hold with upside potential if rate cases are approved.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Current price marginally above DCF fair value
  • Decreasing trading volume and neutral technical trend
  • Pending rate case outcomes could shift revenue

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Steady dividend yield and reasonable payout ratio
  • Capital investment program enhancing long‑term infrastructure
  • Regulatory rate case approvals expected to boost earnings

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Essential utility services provide defensive demand
  • Scale benefits from recent merger expanding customer base
  • Attractive dividend yield in a low‑growth environment

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.80%
Profit Margin21.62%
P/E Ratio23.6
ROE10.50%
ROA3.47%
Debt/Equity146.99
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$2.1B
Free Cash Flow$-2340999936
Industry P/E20.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.1
Support$122.00
Resistance$138.59
MA 20$132.98
MA 50$130.69
MA 200$136.36
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.86

Valuation

Fair Value$50.22
Target Price$137.70
Upside/Downside2.41%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.23
Volatility26.31%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.