AVOL:SIXAvolta AG Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-18 - not real-time
CHF 44.82
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock trades just below its 20‑day SMA and comfortably beneath the 50‑day SMA, with a neutral RSI around the mid‑40s and a bullish MACD crossover hinting at modest upside. Volume is on a decreasing trend, while 30‑day volatility remains elevated, suggesting price swings could be pronounced despite a low beta.
Fundamental backdrop: Avolta carries a very high debt load relative to equity, modest profit margins and a dividend yield of 2.6% backed by a payout ratio above 70%, raising questions on sustainability. However, the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value near 76 CHF, well above the current price, and the market sentiment index is in “Extreme Greed” territory, indicating potential upside if earnings can improve.
Fundamental backdrop: Avolta carries a very high debt load relative to equity, modest profit margins and a dividend yield of 2.6% backed by a payout ratio above 70%, raising questions on sustainability. However, the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value near 76 CHF, well above the current price, and the market sentiment index is in “Extreme Greed” territory, indicating potential upside if earnings can improve.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price near short‑term support levels
- decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
- neutral RSI indicating limited immediate momentum
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- DCF‑derived fair value substantially above market price
- bullish MACD signal supporting potential upside
- attractive dividend yield if cash flow stabilizes
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- very high leverage and debt‑to‑equity ratio
- exposure to travel‑retail cycles and geopolitical travel trends
- uncertain sustainability of dividend given cash‑flow constraints
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.20%
Profit Margin1.42%
P/E Ratio33.0
ROE14.83%
ROA4.06%
Debt/Equity558.31
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash FlowCHF3.0B
Free Cash FlowCHF1.7B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI44.4
SupportCHF 41.80
ResistanceCHF 52.85
MA 20CHF 45.36
MA 50CHF 47.04
MA 200CHF 46.00
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.61
Valuation
Fair ValueCHF 76.48
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.60%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.36
Volatility39.98%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.