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AUTO:LSEAutotrader Group PLC Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

£463.70

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

AutoTrader is trading at £463.7, just above its 20‑day SMA (£462.5) but still below the 50‑day (£482.2) and 200‑day (£596.1) averages, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI sits at 47.6 (near neutral) and the MACD histogram is positive, signaling a tentative bullish momentum despite the overall bearish trend and decreasing volume.
On the fundamentals side, the company delivers exceptional profitability – gross margin of 79 %, operating margin of 62 % and a ROE of 60 % – but revenue growth is modest at 2.7 % YoY. Earnings missed consensus expectations, prompting a >3 % share‑price dip, yet the board announced a £500‑£600 million shareholder return programme and a 2.5 % dividend with a 32 % payout ratio, underscoring cash‑flow strength. Compared with peers, the PE of 13.6 is below the industry average of 17, but the DCF‑derived fair value (£429) sits under the current price, suggesting the stock may be fairly‑priced to slightly overvalued at present.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Earnings miss and price pressure
  • Decreasing volume trend
  • Technical support at £418.6 and bullish MACD signal

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • £500‑£600 m shareholder return/buyback programme
  • Attractive dividend yield of 2.5 % with low payout ratio
  • Upside potential to analyst median target of £557

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained high margins and ROE above 60 %
  • Low beta indicating defensive stock characteristics
  • Strong cash‑flow generation supporting dividend sustainability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.70%
Profit Margin47.08%
P/E Ratio13.6
ROE60.20%
ROA36.66%
Debt/Equity51.83
P/B Ratio9.4
Op. Cash Flow£322.8M
Free Cash Flow£243.7M
Industry P/E17.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.6
Support£418.60
Resistance£518.20
MA 20£462.48
MA 50£482.17
MA 200£596.08
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value£429.29
Target Price£582.47
Upside/Downside25.61%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.50%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.28
Volatility42.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.