AUTO:LSEAutotrader Group PLC Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time
£463.70
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
AutoTrader is trading at £463.7, just above its 20‑day SMA (£462.5) but still below the 50‑day (£482.2) and 200‑day (£596.1) averages, indicating a short‑term bearish bias. The RSI sits at 47.6 (near neutral) and the MACD histogram is positive, signaling a tentative bullish momentum despite the overall bearish trend and decreasing volume.
On the fundamentals side, the company delivers exceptional profitability – gross margin of 79 %, operating margin of 62 % and a ROE of 60 % – but revenue growth is modest at 2.7 % YoY. Earnings missed consensus expectations, prompting a >3 % share‑price dip, yet the board announced a £500‑£600 million shareholder return programme and a 2.5 % dividend with a 32 % payout ratio, underscoring cash‑flow strength. Compared with peers, the PE of 13.6 is below the industry average of 17, but the DCF‑derived fair value (£429) sits under the current price, suggesting the stock may be fairly‑priced to slightly overvalued at present.
On the fundamentals side, the company delivers exceptional profitability – gross margin of 79 %, operating margin of 62 % and a ROE of 60 % – but revenue growth is modest at 2.7 % YoY. Earnings missed consensus expectations, prompting a >3 % share‑price dip, yet the board announced a £500‑£600 million shareholder return programme and a 2.5 % dividend with a 32 % payout ratio, underscoring cash‑flow strength. Compared with peers, the PE of 13.6 is below the industry average of 17, but the DCF‑derived fair value (£429) sits under the current price, suggesting the stock may be fairly‑priced to slightly overvalued at present.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Earnings miss and price pressure
- Decreasing volume trend
- Technical support at £418.6 and bullish MACD signal
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- £500‑£600 m shareholder return/buyback programme
- Attractive dividend yield of 2.5 % with low payout ratio
- Upside potential to analyst median target of £557
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained high margins and ROE above 60 %
- Low beta indicating defensive stock characteristics
- Strong cash‑flow generation supporting dividend sustainability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth2.70%
Profit Margin47.08%
P/E Ratio13.6
ROE60.20%
ROA36.66%
Debt/Equity51.83
P/B Ratio9.4
Op. Cash Flow£322.8M
Free Cash Flow£243.7M
Industry P/E17.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI47.6
Support£418.60
Resistance£518.20
MA 20£462.48
MA 50£482.17
MA 200£596.08
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86
Valuation
Fair Value£429.29
Target Price£582.47
Upside/Downside25.61%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.50%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.28
Volatility42.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.