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APP:NASDAQApplovin Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-08 - not real-time

$527.98

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

AppLovin delivers exceptional top‑line growth and industry‑leading margins, with revenue expanding at a rapid pace and gross, operating and profit margins all well above 70%. However, valuation metrics are stretched, as the price‑earnings multiple sits far above the sector average and the price‑to‑book ratio is extremely high. The stock trades below its long‑term moving average but above short‑term averages, while a bullish MACD contrasts with a bearish longer‑term trend. High beta and 30‑day volatility indicate pronounced price swings, and decreasing volume adds a liquidity caution. Recent analyst upgrades, upward earnings revisions and the opening of its advertising platform to all buyers provide fresh catalysts, supporting a medium‑term upside outlook despite the current overvaluation.
Given the strong growth fundamentals, elevated risk profile, and optimistic analyst sentiment, the recommendation leans toward a buy stance for investors with a medium to long horizon, while short‑term positioning should remain cautious.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish longer‑term trend below 200‑day SMA
  • High volatility and decreasing volume
  • Upcoming earnings release could swing price

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and ultra‑high margins
  • Analyst upgrades and upward EPS revisions
  • Platform now open to all advertisers, expanding addressable market

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained growth trajectory in AI‑driven ad tech
  • Robust cash generation despite leverage
  • Long‑run upside potential from market share gains

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth59.00%
Profit Margin64.29%
P/E Ratio45.9
ROE266.44%
ROA44.24%
Debt/Equity162.89
P/B Ratio75.1
Op. Cash Flow$4.4B
Free Cash Flow$3.2B
Industry P/E16.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI53.6
Support$418.46
Resistance$576.46
MA 20$502.00
MA 50$503.32
MA 200$539.22
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.57

Valuation

Fair Value$338.17
Target Price$654.47
Upside/Downside23.96%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta2.12
Volatility75.47%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.