APN:JSEAspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
ZAC 13,252.00
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading just below its 20‑day moving average but comfortably above both the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating a lingering bullish bias. Volume has been picking up, supporting the upward momentum, while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI sits in a neutral zone, suggesting short‑term caution.
Fundamental outlook: Valuation appears stretched; the price‑to‑book multiple is extremely high and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value well below the current level. Earnings are currently negative, though forward estimates turn positive, and the company carries a heavy debt load relative to equity with limited free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend despite a modest yield.
Fundamental outlook: Valuation appears stretched; the price‑to‑book multiple is extremely high and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value well below the current level. Earnings are currently negative, though forward estimates turn positive, and the company carries a heavy debt load relative to equity with limited free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend despite a modest yield.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- price hovering near short‑term resistance
- bearish MACD signal
- elevated valuation relative to DCF
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- forward earnings outlook improving
- stable dividend yield
- strong market position in specialty generics
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- high leverage and negative free cash flow
- potential regulatory headwinds in key markets
- need for debt reduction to support dividend sustainability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.30%
Profit Margin-4.69%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE-2.17%
ROA2.85%
Debt/Equity40.63
P/B Ratio72.7
Op. Cash FlowZAC6.9B
Free Cash FlowZAC-17675999232
Industry P/E26.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.8
SupportZAC 12,223.00
ResistanceZAC 14,458.00
MA 20ZAC 13,324.00
MA 50ZAC 12,176.38
MA 200ZAC 11,009.79
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueZAC 8,686.85
Target PriceZAC 14,250.00
Upside/Downside7.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.11
Volatility38.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.