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APN:JSEAspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

ZAC 13,252.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: The stock is trading just below its 20‑day moving average but comfortably above both the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, indicating a lingering bullish bias. Volume has been picking up, supporting the upward momentum, while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI sits in a neutral zone, suggesting short‑term caution.
Fundamental outlook: Valuation appears stretched; the price‑to‑book multiple is extremely high and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value well below the current level. Earnings are currently negative, though forward estimates turn positive, and the company carries a heavy debt load relative to equity with limited free cash flow, raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend despite a modest yield.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price hovering near short‑term resistance
  • bearish MACD signal
  • elevated valuation relative to DCF

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • forward earnings outlook improving
  • stable dividend yield
  • strong market position in specialty generics

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • high leverage and negative free cash flow
  • potential regulatory headwinds in key markets
  • need for debt reduction to support dividend sustainability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.30%
Profit Margin-4.69%
P/E Ratio10.3
ROE-2.17%
ROA2.85%
Debt/Equity40.63
P/B Ratio72.7
Op. Cash FlowZAC6.9B
Free Cash FlowZAC-17675999232
Industry P/E26.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI54.8
SupportZAC 12,223.00
ResistanceZAC 14,458.00
MA 20ZAC 13,324.00
MA 50ZAC 12,176.38
MA 200ZAC 11,009.79
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair ValueZAC 8,686.85
Target PriceZAC 14,250.00
Upside/Downside7.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.59%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.11
Volatility38.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.