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AP:PSEAboitiz Power Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time

$8.35

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Ampco‑Pittsburgh (AP) is trading at $8.35, which sits below its 20‑day SMA of $8.91 but comfortably above the 50‑day SMA of $7.25, suggesting a short‑term pull‑back within a broader bullish framework. The RSI of 49.97 signals a neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, hinting at potential downside pressure. Price remains above the calculated support of $7.10 and well under the $10 resistance, yet the 30‑day volatility is an extreme 99.7% and beta exceeds 1.2, flagging high market‑related risk.
Fundamentally, the company posts 12% revenue growth but suffers a negative profit margin (‑1.2%) and a trailing EPS of ‑$0.27, compounded by a steep debt‑to‑equity ratio of 188% and a cash balance far smaller than its $140M debt load. The DCF‑derived fair value of $18.92 implies the stock is materially undervalued, though the forward PE of 36.3 versus an industry average of 29.3 suggests a premium pricing that may not be justified without an earnings turnaround.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support but MACD bearish
  • Extreme short‑term volatility
  • High leverage and negative earnings

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value indicates ~125% upside
  • Revenue growth of 12% YoY
  • Potential earnings recovery improving forward PE

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained high debt‑to‑equity ratio
  • Cyclical industrial sector exposure
  • Need for consistent profitability to justify valuation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.30%
Profit Margin-1.24%
P/E Ratio36.3
ROE-4.08%
ROA1.82%
Debt/Equity187.59
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$6.1M
Free Cash Flow$22.4M
Industry P/E29.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI50.0
Support$7.10
Resistance$10.00
MA 20$8.91
MA 50$7.25
MA 200$4.00
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.88

Valuation

Fair Value$18.92
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.25
Volatility99.70%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.