ANZ:ASXANZ Group Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
A$37.44
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ANZ is trading at AUD 37.44, just below its 20‑day SMA (39.13) but above the 50‑day SMA (37.60), indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a broader bullish framework. The RSI sits at 44, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD is bearish and volume is trending down, highlighting some near‑term pressure. Volatility is elevated at 34 % over the past 30 days, yet the beta of 0.35 points to low systematic risk relative to the market.
Fundamentally, the bank posted a 75 % jump in Q1 cash profit to AUD 1.94 bn on a 6.4 % revenue growth, and its operating margin remains strong at 40 %. However, operating cash flow is negative, the dividend payout ratio is high at 85 %, and a recent AUD 250 m regulatory fine adds a material headwind. Valuation is mixed: the trailing PE of 19.1 is above the industry average of 17.4, but the forward PE of 14.5 suggests earnings improvement, while the dividend yield of 4.5 % remains attractive.
Fundamentally, the bank posted a 75 % jump in Q1 cash profit to AUD 1.94 bn on a 6.4 % revenue growth, and its operating margin remains strong at 40 %. However, operating cash flow is negative, the dividend payout ratio is high at 85 %, and a recent AUD 250 m regulatory fine adds a material headwind. Valuation is mixed: the trailing PE of 19.1 is above the industry average of 17.4, but the forward PE of 14.5 suggests earnings improvement, while the dividend yield of 4.5 % remains attractive.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Recent AUD 250 m regulatory fine weighing on sentiment
- Bearish MACD and decreasing volume indicating near‑term weakness
- Price near support level at AUD 35.84
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Cost‑cutting driving a 75 % rise in Q1 cash profit
- Forward PE of 14.5 implying earnings upside
- Attractive 4.5 % dividend yield relative to peers
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Sustained dividend payout pressure from high payout ratio
- Ongoing regulatory scrutiny after misconduct fine
- Low beta and solid market position supporting defensive profile
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.40%
Profit Margin27.09%
P/E Ratio19.1
ROE8.33%
ROA0.47%
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash FlowA$-24295000064
Industry P/E17.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.7
SupportA$35.84
ResistanceA$41.00
MA 20A$39.13
MA 50A$37.60
MA 200A$34.22
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Target PriceA$37.60
Upside/Downside0.42%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.51%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.35
Volatility34.15%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.