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AMRT:IDXPT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-24 - not real-time

IDR 1,425.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk shows solid top‑line momentum with year‑over‑year revenue growth in the high single digits and margins that comfortably support profitability. The company generates strong operating cash flow, maintains a healthy cash balance and pays a dividend yielding just under three percent, with a payout ratio around forty percent, suggesting the dividend is sustainable.
Technically, the stock trades well below its long‑term moving average, indicating a bearish bias, while the RSI hovers near the mid‑range and the MACD has turned bullish, hinting at a possible short‑term rebound. Volume is rising, support sits near the low‑52‑week trough and the DCF model implies a substantial upside, but the 30‑day volatility exceeds forty percent and the recent max drawdown approaches fifty percent, underscoring notable price risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price near strong support level
  • bearish position relative to long‑term averages
  • elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • undervalued relative to DCF fair value
  • robust cash generation and dividend yield
  • defensive consumer‑staples positioning

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • sustained revenue growth and expanding store network
  • strong return on equity and capital efficiency
  • long‑run upside potential and dividend consistency

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.50%
Profit Margin2.72%
P/E Ratio16.8
ROE19.11%
ROA6.38%
Debt/Equity13.59
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash FlowIDR7311.8B
Free Cash FlowIDR3515.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI47.0
SupportIDR 1,305.00
ResistanceIDR 1,525.00
MA 20IDR 1,423.50
MA 50IDR 1,454.60
MA 200IDR 1,859.03
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.61

Valuation

Fair ValueIDR 1,617.01
Target PriceIDR 2,307.06
Upside/Downside61.90%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.39%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.21
Volatility44.55%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.