ALX:ASXAtlas Arteria Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-06 - not real-time
A$4.57
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind Atlas Arteria Limited is neutral at AUD 4.57, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. Across the trailing 30 sessions it lost 9.3%. With RSI at 26.5 the momentum picture is oversold, alongside a bearish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at AUD 4.42 up to resistance at AUD 5.06.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 57.1 times earnings against the sector's 28.5. Analyst price targets sit 4.5% above the current price. Revenue is contracting at 4.1% on a 171.4% profit margin. The 8.75% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 13.3%, a beta of 0.30 and a maximum drawdown of 20.2%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 3/10.
Multiples put this in overvalued territory: 57.1 times earnings against the sector's 28.5. Analyst price targets sit 4.5% above the current price. Revenue is contracting at 4.1% on a 171.4% profit margin. The 8.75% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 13.3%, a beta of 0.30 and a maximum drawdown of 20.2%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on hold, with conviction of 3/10.
Top Market Events
Atlas Arteria Ltd ASX: ALX closes the IFM Takeover Offer and launches a board leadership transition process.Atlas Arteria posts flat Q2 toll revenues and boosts liquidity with a new A$150 million corporate loan.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- RSI at 26.5 signals oversold conditions
- Trading below the 200-day average of 4.81
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- RSI at 26.5 signals oversold conditions
- P/E of 57.1 versus sector average of 28.5
- Dividend yield of 8.75% looks stretched against payout coverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 57.1 versus sector average of 28.5
- Dividend yield of 8.75% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Profit margin of 171.4% is healthy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.10%
Profit Margin171.37%
P/E Ratio57.1
ROE0.62%
ROA-0.32%
Debt/Equity30.78
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash FlowA$83.2M
Free Cash FlowA$169.2M
Industry P/E28.5
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI26.5
SupportA$4.42
ResistanceA$5.06
MA 20A$4.78
MA 50A$4.95
MA 200A$4.81
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair ValueA$0.52
Target PriceA$4.78
Upside/Downside4.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.75%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.30
Volatility13.28%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.